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Taxifornia? Mexifornia? Thugifornia?
It was not very long ago that California Governor Gray Davis was viewed by the elite media
as presidential material. California, with its total package - governor, US Senators, state legislature and congressional
delegation - was viewed as so uniformly under Democrat control that it would become the progressive demonstration
project for a 21st century New Deal. California was about to pass France as the world's fifth largest economy.
Davis was so popular that he had to announce in 2000 that he was not interested in a Gore-Davis presidential ticket.
He had a million vote margin within the state on partisan issues. The Republicans were left with one single lever
- the rules required a two-thirds super-majority to pass the budget.
Having seen five plus years of total liberal Democratic rule, the citizens asked for a do-over last July by invoking
a 92-year-old recall provision of the state constitution. Personalities aside for the moment, there are a cluster
of issues to be debated by the folks of California who are serious about governance. Shall their state become …
?
Taxifornia
Current census data reveals that California residents are voting with their feet. In the last five years of
the 20th century, more Californians moved to other states than residents of other states moved to California. The
net loss exceeded 600,000 people and over 300,000 manufacturing jobs. After years of being a magnet for people
and businesses, California is now exporting both, particularly the young. Why?
- Other than annual deficits exceeding $10 billion for as far as the eye can see, the Davis administration has
no plan for dealing with the state's $38 billion accumulated deficit. The deficit is higher than the total of all
other 49 states combined.
- The state's population exceeds 30 million and it has over 15 million tax payers, yet the state income tax structure
is so steeply progressive that just 11 percent (those earning over $100,000) pay 80 percent of the state's income
tax. The 330,000 highest income taxpayers produce about 50 percent of the state tax revenue. Therefore annual state
government revenues are highly elastic, depending on the annual income of the wealthiest few. The state has become
a true battleground between those who produce taxable income and those who live off of government resources.
- The state income tax of 9.3 percent is among the highest in the nations. The state sales tax of 7.25 percent
is the highest and some county governments add more.
- The workman's comp payouts are so generous that the premiums have more than doubled. Employers are required
to grant paid family/medical leave.
- Government mismanagement of the energy crisis cost the state an estimated $50 billion in overcharges and they
are still locked into over-priced long-term contracts. The state vehicle license fee was tripled, causing so much
reaction that those who pushed it are now calling for its repeal. The state bond rating has been down-graded twice
as spending rose 13-14 percent a year while revenues declined and job-creating small and medium businesses left
the state.
Two results of the recall effort have already occurred. A patchwork budget for the year was signed into law
without any major tax increases (though a major deficit) and the threats to challenge to super-majority rule in
court were dropped.
Mexifornia
The other part of the census report is that the 600,000 Californians who left the state were replaced with 600,000
undocumented workers/future voters. That's politically correct Californian for illegal immigrants. It is thought
in some circles that when the Democrats get sufficiently desperate, they will play the race card. In its most extreme
form, that would mean pressuring Davis to resign so that Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante can run as an incumbent Latino
Governor.
Short of that, some expect Davis to be offering a new version of a bill he vetoed last year which gives undocumented
aliens (i.e. illegal immigrants) the special privilege of obtaining a California driver's license. On the federal
level, Congress is considering a bill to place limits on the use of matricula consular identification cards.
These are Mexican identity cards given to immigrants regardless of their legal status. Currently there are neither
rules nor limits and the cards provide a ready vehicle for would-be terrorists wanting to enter the United States.
At the moment, the card can be used to get the driver's license, etc etc. Davis is also expected to push for lower
in-state school tuition for undocumented students.
One of the major fault lines between moderate and conservative Republicans is their attitude towards immigration.
Attacks based on campaign manager Pete Wilson's record of opposition to racial preferences and illegal immigration
have already started because he proved that a 60-percent majority awaits the candidate who can express these issues
in terms of fairness and equity.
A Democratic race based on immigration has two major potential problems with it. The first is that the success
story of Arnold Schwarzenegger is admired within the immigrant community. The second is that immigrant turnout
is usually suspect. Anglos make up 50 percent of registered voters and turn out at a two-thirds rate. Latinos make
up about one-third of the registered voters but historically turn out at about a 25 percent rate. Blacks make up
about 8 percent of the voters and turn out at even a lower rate. Undocumented workers, of course, hold down the
wages of entry level jobs and are therefore at cross purposes with resident black youth.
Thugifornia
The Democrats have a long history of stopping or modifying California's popular referenda through the use of
a non-elected judiciary. Those legal maneuvering threats continue. Of more interest, given the intensity of the
campaign, is the threat of actual violence.
Cruz Bustamonte grew up in the central valley, around Fresno. From early days he witnessed the selective use of
intimidation by Cesar Chavez and his United Farm Workers and later by the Teamsters. A double college dropout from
both Fresno City College and Fresno State University, Bustamonte invested his college years in being a Mechista
activist. MEchA is the Moviemiento Estudiantil Chicano de Aztlan. This radical movement to create Aztlan
envisions a separate Mexican state running from Texas to California and the Rio Grande to Canada. Its members view
that land as lost and in need of being restored as reparations from the occupiers.
The violent actions of extreme environmentalists such as the alleged ELF San Diego fire have become more frequent.
The radical left has been long coddled in their California demonstrations and do not know if there are police or
court limits to their actions. Speaking in San Francisco last week to the Green Party, Florida election spoiler
Ralph Nader received an iced cake in the face. His assailant disappeared. The
Sacramento Bee reports that members of WAR (Workers Against the Recall) physically attacked pro recall supporters
at the Sheraton Hotel last Saturday. WAR members were union workshop attendees attending classes on how to defeat
the recall paid for by a grant from the state government.
It will remain an open question in an Internet age if excitement to go vote is turned into incitement to violence.
There are four possible outcomes to the recall effort. The recall can be defeated; Davis will remain as Governor
but cannot run again in 2006. The recall can pass but a Democrat replaces Davis and can run again in 2006 as an
incumbent. The recall can pass and a Republican can become Governor with such a low plurality that there is no
mandate to govern. Three powers would be in place; however, a Republican governor can use his veto threat to modify
bills, issue executive orders and block programs through the super-majority budget rule and his line item veto
power. The Democrats will also be forced to spend real money in 2004 in support of their Presidential candidate
and thereby shortchange some Senate races.
The fourth is that the recall passes and Arnold Schwarzenegger wins with a sufficient plurality and popular acceptance
to lead a formidable counter-balance to the left-leaning Democrat legislature. Republicans, Democrats and Independents
may overcome their fear and reluctance to vote for anything Republican in the future.
Dealing with these issues and others like them is the real stuff of governing. Somewhere in the insipid media frenzy,
democracy is at work. Entrenched elites might want to watch out. California ain't France and Sacramento ain't Brussels.
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