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The Charge of the Lightweight Brigade
So far, Howard Dean's presidential campaign has produced this year's answer to the question
"What ever happened to the Buchanan Brigades?" As the Middle East has proven time and again, ineffectual
rage is no substitute for rational thought. Moderate elements of the Democratic Party met this week to see if further
chaos could be averted. Their answer? Maybe not.
Clinton pollster Mark Penn, speaking to the Democratic Leadership Council in Philadelphia, warned that the party
is headed into the 2004 election season in its weakest state in 70 years. "Bringing home the base is not enough
to win an election," he said. Less than one-third of Americans define themselves as Democrats. That compares
with 49 percent in 1958.
The party's core constituency of union members (predominantly government employees today, not blue collar workers),
African-Americans and the working poor making under $20,000 a year is holding together, Homosexuals and some Hispanics
have been brought into the fold. "But," says Penn, "That's it."
The Republicans hold every advantage as productive people move up the economic ladder. Suburban voters, white-collar
workers and professionals favor the Republicans by large margins. The growing segment that contains the bulk of
swing voters, says Penn, is the heart of the middle class - suburban parents.
The expanding Latino population is the only trend that partially favors the Democrats.(Half of Hispanics consider
themselves Independents.) All other political growth trends favor the Republicans, including the decline in manufacturing
jobs, the shift from cities to suburbs and exurbs and the dramatic increase in college education, white-collar
employment and professional opportunities, including self-employment and entrepreneurship.
The key target audience of married voters with kids at home perceive of the Democrats as standing for ever bigger
government, ever higher taxes, extreme liberal ideas and a party beholden to special interests. The 2004 battle
is for these swing voters. That independent swing profile represent about one-third of the survey sample. Both
men and women are moderate, white, slightly upper middle class in earnings ($50-100k) and Catholic. The up-for-grabs
ratio is Democrat - 28 percent; Republican - 31 percent and undecided - 40 percent.
.A Zogby poll of mid-July queried Democratic and Independent primary voters. Some 48 percent said that they disliked
President Bush personally. However, 69 % agreed that Bush was likely to be in the White House for a second term.
Just about one-half (48%) said they wished other candidates were running. In deed, calls for Al Gore to reconsider
have surfaced.
As emphasized by the Penn research and the speech of Sen. Evan Bayh, (D-IN), DNC Chair, the party is in danger
of being swamped by the radical insurgency of Howard Dean. "Do we want to vent or do we want to govern?"
Sen. Bayh asked.
Many convention speakers emphasized the same point: The Democratic Party is weak on defense in an age of terrorism
- a losing position among middle class suburban voters, male and female. Personal security trumps even the state
of the economy.
The new economic reports, meanwhile, are showing substantial signs of growth and recovery. Commerce Department
shows an economy on the mend with economic growth at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. Forecasts had been at about
1.5 percent. Growth came from a return in business investment, a record surge in defense spending, hardy consumer
spending and a still robust housing market. Forecasts for the remainder of the year are in the 3.5-4.0 range.
Even some individuals on the extreme left have had second thoughts. Writing in Middle East Quarterly, Charles M.
Brown, a self-described Anti-Sanctions Activist, notes that the activists "wittingly or unwittingly became
mouthpieces for Saddam in the United States. My work as a college circuit activist was dependent upon my continued
willingness to toe the Ba'athist line. We were allowed to speak only on one thing: the deprivations suffered by
ordinary Iraqi's because of sanctions. We were silent on Saddam's horrendous human rights record, his involvement
with WMD and the dictatorial nature of the regime. … I came to see this as a complicity and collaboration with
one of the most abusive dictatorships in the world."
Saddam having fallen, the radical left has been calling for capitulation of the victors. Their vehicle is the United
Nations, where France has veto powers. They remain adamant
Their goal is that the UN be given absolute and complete control over Iraq's political, economic and civilian reconstruction.
A sign at a rally said "France Was Right!" In the meantime, the 25-member Iraqi Council has been formed.
It is the only organized governmental body in the entire Middle East with representatives of all of the nation's
major factions.
As the Left buzzes and swarms, party centrists are beginning to react. For one thing, they are bringing out the
math. The radical left polls at the most as one-third of the one-third of Americans who favor Democrats. That's
a maximum base of one ninth of the electorate. Calling Larry King last week, former President Clinton suggested
that the party cool its anti-war frenzy. Such talk weakens the American military, encourages further terrorism
and increases the killings because America is seen as divided. Clinton's political advice was for the Democrats
to realize that they can't beat Bush on the war and therefore be sympathetic, generous, bipartisan and mature and
get the fight over to more favorable territory such as the domestic scene..
Finally, this week, the appeasement left got so loud and so caught up in distortions that candidate Joe Lieberman
was forced to speak. "Some Democrats (i.e. Dean, Kerry and Gephardt) don't know a just war when they see it,"
he said. What do we call political leaders who are not prepared to use our military to protect our security and
freedom? What do we call them after we have been attacked? What do you call them if the attack is nuclear?
Will America cut and run? Global terrorists, who have convinced themselves that Americans are inattentive, cowardly
and shallow, are watching carefully. Can they and their collaborators create "Another Vietnam?" (That
is to say, can a military victory be turned into a political defeat?)
The terrorists and their allies have no respect for weakness. If we are driven from the battle field through small
and inexpensive attacks on the ground plus large and free attacks in the openly distorted media, the terrorist
whirlwind will be upon us.
A global war between the United States and militant Islam is reshaping the international system. We are in a defining
moment. That war is now. It is no time for lightweights.
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