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Fear of Victory
Time enough next week to discuss the prospects for war. Traditionally, the mid-term State
of the Union speech kicks off a President's re-election campaign. In the pause before Secretary Powell's speech
at the United Nations, there is time to look at the current political situation.
For both the foreign and domestic political left, the concern of a Bush war victory in Iraq is that it could bring
with it a permanent loss of their power and the prospect of Democrats remaining the minority party for decades
to come. In December, pollster Scott Rasmussen published a detailed analysis of the 2002 mid-term elections: The
GOP Generation - Will the Republican Tide Keep Rising? The research report (www.ScottPolls.com) is based on recent extensive surveys and gives the rationale for a monumental
shift within the American establishment from center-left to center-right. His case has three main points.
The Republicans emerged from the 2002 election entrenched as the majority party
- Republicans have retained a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives for five straight elections.
- Republicans have held a majority of the nation's Governors since 1994.
- Republicans control a majority of state Senates and House chambers.
- For the first time since 1952, a majority of individual state legislators are Republican.
- Republicans control both houses of the state legislature in 22 states, the Democrats in 18.
These institutional factors create more than just the power of incumbency; they include permanent advantages
such as enhanced candidate recruitment, a more favorable case for fundraising and the power to set agendas and
priorities in both House and Senate.
The possibility of a GOP Generation will be determined by national security
The 2000 election saw national security issues ranked ninth in importance for voters. In 2002 they were almost
the exclusive thing. Peace of mind, not the pocketbook, was the central issue of American politics. Voters in 2004
will measure the success of the war on terror and the price paid to fight that war. They must feel safe in their
person and secure in their job. Terror affects both.
The key voter belief identified in the research is that to maintain its relevance, the UN needs to cooperate with
the US far more than the US needs to cooperate with the UN. Some 71 percent of Americans hold the view that the
world would be a better place if other countries were more like the United States. In fact, 84 percent believe
that the United States is the greatest nation on earth. The American people place our national interest above multilateral
politics. There is virtually no interest in giving over national sovereignty to an international body, especially
in matters of defense and security. The idea that France will dictate American foreign policy is a non-starter.
To the general public what matters about Saddam Hussein is that he has repeatedly defied the United Nations, aggressively
supported America's terrorist enemies over a long period of time and he needs to be stopped. Specific, legalistic
evidence is not necessary to justify a war. Many Americans are still disgusted that Saddam survived the first Gulf
War. They are tired of talk aimed at causing delay.
It's more than bowing to the UN. The left wing of the Democratic Party is out of synch with 21st Century America,
Rasmussen suggests.
- Most Americans believe that society is fair and decent, not unfair and discriminatory.
- Most Americans believe that a war with Iraq will be the fault of Saddam Hussein.
- Most Americans do not consider our society to be racist.
- Overall, three out of four Americans favor the "melting pot" theory of immigration policy over maintaining
the culture of the home country.
- Most Americans want the US to lead, not follow, its allies.
- Most Americans embrace policies that celebrate America and its culture.
The only thing that would change this dynamic would be an extensive military quagmire
or a series of successful terrorist attacks within the United States. Even those two cautions are defined more
precisely in research recently published in The Economist.
In broad terms, that research shows that ten percent of the population is always opposed to any war. The remaining
90 percent divide into three approximately equal groups. The government will be able to tap 30 percent for support
of almost any war. A second 30 percent will withdraw support when faced by excessive or prolonged casualties. The
final 30 percent will withdraw support when they think that the war is not being pursued with victory in mind.
It is the combination of high casualties and the thought that the suffering is in vain that creates anti-war sentiment.
War and the economy are intertwined
One of the mysteries of the 2002 election is why the poor economy didn't drag down the party of the President.
The research indicates that voters assumed that the international situation was partially responsible for economic
decline. To the degree that solving international problems is required before the economy could improve, voters
trusted the Republicans by a wide margin. Eliminating the uncertainty over Iraq would be perhaps one of the best
economic policies available. Doubt about the future prevents or postpones decisions about new investment, new hires
and new purchases. Thus pleas for "more time" for inspectors also means pleas for delays before an economic
recovery will begin. "More time" requests must have a date certain and not be another very, very, very
last chance.
The Democrats miss the voters, Rasmussen says, in three economic areas: (1) a majority of voters favor tax cuts
to help the economy and detest tax hikes, (2) there are no Democrat programs that appeal to the 50 million plus
Investor Class and (3) the tide of small business owners and self-employed has grown to the point that they exceed
the number of both union members and government workers. The entrepreneurs have been ignored by the politicians
and they are the ones who create most new jobs.
For the moment, fear is driving the Democrats to irrational stunts such as the "pre-rebuttal." That's
a press conference criticizing Bush proposals before they have even been announced or the details made public.
"All we know," Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D. - SD) told the press, "is that our donor base
says to fight."
A short war that doesn't spread, the lifting of uncertainty for business and an American force present in the physical
center of radical Islam would create the conditions for a much diminished left in both America and Old Europe.
The President's approval in overnight polls after the State of the Union speech rose again to above 70 percent.
Advocating the appeasement of an Anti-Semite psychopath isn't exactly a sign of political vigor. "We don't
have to wait for Saddam to get a nuke," the Left says, "We are intimidated already."
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