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The Fifth Veto
What about China? We know the maneuverings for Iraq by its business associates France
and Russia. We know the counter-measures of the United States and Great Britain. There is little mass media reporting
on the fifth permanent Security Council member - China.
China fancies itself as the major geopolitical rival to the United States in the 21st Century. A U.S. victory in
Iraq slows China in its ability to challenge the United States anytime soon. However, Beijing appears to be adopting
the long view. It will let others stimulate the anti-war campaign while it digests its new leadership and strengthens
its economy.
In a recent alert, Stratfor Global Intelligence describes the three Iraqi scenarios that concern Beijing.
A quick U.S. victory would not only establish Washington's control over Iraqi oil but also secure military dominance
throughout the region. A speedy win would create a massive restructuring of the Middle East which could lead to
lower oil prices for China but also create a dependency on America and its allies for energy. Beijing would have
to forego its plans to be in control of a major portion of Iraqi oil. If Washington held a stranglehold on oil
supplies, China could face restricted growth prospects and never be truly free from U.S. dominance.
The second scenario is the reverse of the first one. Somehow, Saddam survives, stays in power and sanctions are
lifted. The possibilities for China suddenly become very profitable indeed. Therefore, China must appear to be
a friend of the status quo to the extent it can do so without alarming U.S. interests.
The third scenario is that America and its allies get bogged down in an unsuccessful protracted war with offshoots
throughout the Middle East - a sort of Clinton-era Somalia writ large. This is a pipe dream of the global anti-capitalist
network but highly unlikely given the power of the U.S. war machine. China doesn't need to play much of a role
because the world-wide Left is already fear mongering everywhere it can. However, anything that keeps Washington's
eyes diverted from East Asia would give China the breathing room it needs to make its leadership transition, boost
its economy and build up its military.
China has settled on a policy of watching the Iraqi fight from a distance. Beijing intends to pose as a peaceful
partner and attractive market for the world's business. It will encourage opposition to war but remain cooperative
with the U.S. - assuring Washington that it will not exercise its veto power. While most people are looking elsewhere,
it will use the proceeds from foreign investment to build up and modernize its military.
China is to labor as Saudi Arabia is to oil - the low cost, high volume supplier. It intends to make the manufacturing
world as addicted as the energy world. With a population of 1.3 billion and a thriving middle class of 300 million,
China has an inexhaustible supply of low-cost labor as well as a growing middle class market on its coasts. No
matter the boom towns, China is very large and still very impoverished. Some two out of three people live on less
that one US. dollar per day. The average factory wage is about 40 cents per hour, or one-sixth that of Mexico.
A manufacturing operation can employ 40 Chinese for the cost of hiring one American. The new regime cannot stay
in power without bringing hope to the rural inland masses.
Over the past few years, China has embraced capitalist wealth creation and used cheap labor to attract massive
foreign investment and secure a reduction of trade barriers. It has become a key source of all kinds of manufactured
goods. Some 80 percent of all American footwear purchased in the United States is made in China, for example. A
report in the Orlando Sentinel by Evelyn Iritani and Marla Dickerson says that China is now the sixth largest
trading nation and that it will rank second by the end of the decade, behind only the United States.
China's total trade has risen 15 times over since 1980 and is currently about $510 billion, 41 percent with the
United States. The American trade deficit with China exceeds $83 billion. What China does not bring to the party
is competitive technology, innovation, managerial skills or marketing expertise. What it does bring besides cheap
labor is tax breaks, abundant land, and the commitment to develop highways, ports, fiber optic networks and any
needed infrastructure. Watching the United States, China believes that a strong economy can be used to create a
strong military, especially a blue water navy. A recent report from Taiwan concludes that China plans to acquire
sufficient fighter aircraft, warships, submarines and ballistic missiles to prevent the U.S. from successfully
defending Taiwan by 2010.
With a growth rate about five times that of an aging, in-grown and pre-occupied Europe, China finds itself in a
lustful embrace with the United States that neither trust but both enjoy. A crisis that threatened US investments
would be catastrophic for China's development. At the same time, the US needs the vast and expanding Chinese market
as well as abundant labor.
In the meantime, with Western help, China has spent $200 million to construct an Internet firewall. According the
Amnesty International, several dozen Chinese citizens have been arrested and jailed for "browsing reactionary
web sites, sending articles by E-mail, and fabricating distorting and exaggerating facts in order to vilify the
Chinese Communist party and socialist system." China's 45 million Internet users have proven surprisingly
vulnerable to having access blocked and their Internet usage traced by some 30,000 to 40,000 Internet police.
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