|
The Jeffords-Chafee Senates
Can you remember? How did we get the Jim Jefford's (I-VT) Senate? Stuck in a 50-50
tie, the Democrat's filibustered the organization of the Senate and were negotiating a power-sharing committee
agreement with the Republican's who controlled by virtue of the tie-breaking duties of the Vice President, Dick
Cheney. The Senate got to the tie because in Missouri the voters elected a dead man and the governor then appointed
his wife to fill the term until the next election. No such action was provided in law. Widow Jean Carnahan became
a Senator without ever having appeared on a ballot. The incumbent, Sen. John Ashcroft, refused to challenge the
election in court or Senate. His grounds would have been that you can't elect a dead man to office or that the
Senate, not the governor, is the constitutional judge of an election outcome.
At this point, a newly re-elected Republican, Jim Jeffords, negotiated a defection from his party with Senate Minority
Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) in exchange for a committee chair appointment and support for a notorious bit of pork
- the Northeast dairy subsidy. The Senate was then divided 49 to 50 plus 1 and Daschle became the Majority Leader
with the organizational authority of the Senate. One Republican nightmare is the possibility of another such outcome.
Were Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) to also desert the party, the Senate could be organized for 2003 as 49 to 49 plus
2. Two weeks away, the voting results can still be anything from plus two Democrats to plus two Republicans. Should
the Chafee Senate come into being, what could the nation expect? More of what we have just been through?
So how did the Jefford's Senate perform? David Broder, dean of the Washington Post columnists, recently wrote his
assessment of the current Congress and called it "The Little Engine That Couldn't."
What Congress Passed. Congress approved an omnibus long term proposal to cut taxes over ten years but did
not make the cuts permanent. All cuts are restored after ten years and the amounts put in place during the first
five years are tiny. The "No Child Left Behind" education bill with its call for performance accountability
was approved. Presidential authority to negotiate trade pacts without Congressional micromanagement was signed
into law. An election reform plan to fund up-to-date voting machines passed but has yet to be funded for the 2004
election. Finally, the authorization to fight the war on terrorism unilaterally if necessary passed by a three-to-one
margin. For good measure, Congress, without debate or dissent, reaffirmed that the words "Under God"
would remain in the Pledge of Allegiance and "In God We Trust" would remain the national motto.
The Obstructionist Senate. For the first time since 1974, the Senate has failed to pass a budget and, except
for defense, no annual appropriations bills have passed Congress including current year drought relief. Continuing
resolutions will govern through November so old allocations will prevail. Congress has not busted the budget because
there isn't one. The Senate has blocked several dozen judicial nominations, some for as long as 17 months. The
litmus test has been abortion. The reorganized Department of Homeland Security has been held up over union rules
and antiterrorism insurance over trial lawyer objections to caps on law suits.
The successful 1996 welfare-reform act has not been re-authorized. There is no Energy Bill. Permission to teach
employees how to better manage their own 401-K plans has been blocked, as has pension reform. In health care, we
see exploding prices, more uninsured and financial difficulties for operating hospitals but no government action.
Prescription drug benefits for even the neediest finds no agreement. A Bush suggestion to ease the restrictions
on religious organization's receiving federal aid for social services has been stalled. Airport security run by
the government is more than a joke, it's an economic liability.
The economy, the stock market and immigration have all been ignored, frankly by both parties, during the election
season. There is little to no job growth or income growth. However, the nation does not seem to blame either party
to the exclusion of the other. The stock market has had an October surge caused by a glimpse at favorable but not
outstanding earnings. With low inflation and low interest rates, mortgage refinancing has allowed the consumer
to keep spending. Autos sell but only with deep incentives. The questions, says economist Paul Craig Roberts, is
whether the consumer can hold on long enough for profits to turn up. What happens next to the economy is a function
of the election results and the outcome of the Iraqi threat.
The Lincoln Chaffee Senate. The Democrat issue is simple - is there any possible way to keep the Senate
in liberal hands and the conservatives out of total power? Does it take lawsuits? So be it. Does it take voter
manipulation? So be it. Do they have to lie? No problem, it's for the greater good. Everything President Bush has
on his future agenda is anathema to the Left. Judicial appointments must be stopped.
The maximum the Democrat's can realistically hope for these mid-terms is a gain in key governorships which will
help them in the 2004 Presidential elections, minimal additional losses in the House and a seat or two gain in
the Senate. The minimum they need to have a chance at continued control is to hold to a loss of one seat and achieve
the subsequent defection of Chaffee while still holding on to Georgia Senator Zell Miller. Without this bare minimum,
they have no hold on federal power. Their revenge goal is the defeat of Governor Jeb Bush in Florida. Can they
retain power?
Two Week Prospects. Many state polls are within the margin of error and many incumbents are polling less
than 50 percent. There does not seem to be any nation trend worthy of note. Columnist Emmett Tyrrell suggests that
the 2002 mid-term is about atmosphere. Objective conditions and considerations will matter little and the turnout
will be determined by mood - how voters feel. It will all depend, he says, on the atmospherics of the day. The
instinct for vigilance may suggest that the first order of business is to protect the nation.
State Incumbent Leaning
NJ* D D
SD* D (R)
MO* D (R)
MN* D (R)
GA D (D)
IA D D
AR* R D
NH R (R)
CO R (R)
NC R R
SC R R
TX* R R
Totals D/R 6/6 4/8
* Current Voter Fraud Issues in play Update: Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash
in Minnesota, October 25.
( ) within margin of error
Assumes that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) escapes a runoff on December 7th.
|
