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Energy, Abdullah and Oil
The increased tensions in the Middle East, the failed coup in Venezuela and the Senate
finally voting on their version of an energy plan competed this week with the choking gurgles of the left as they
looked at French Presidential and German regional elections and found themselves, as it were, Left Out.
The United States imported 53 percent of its total oil consumption in 2000. Recent
projections indicate that figure will rise to 62 percent by 2020. About 14 percent of that total comes from Venezuela
and nine percent from Iraq. The United States is the biggest consumer of Iraqi crude, buying more than half of
their supply. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that oil imports from the volatile Middle East
will increase from 24 percent in 2000 to 50 percent in 2020.
So the Senate, in its infinite wisdom, declares that putting our fighting men and women in harm's way in the Middle
East is preferable to drilling for oil in ANWR. After six weeks of maneuvers, a 580-page bill which includes $14
billion in energy pork, an election-year boost tripling the mandated use of ethanol and the banning of the gasoline
additive MTBE will be sent to a House-Senate conference committee.
Generally speaking, the House bill gives tax breaks to the oil, gas, nuclear and coal industries. The Senate bill
cuts those and gives subsidies to renewable fuels and to encourage conservation. There is even a mandate requiring
the use of expensive renewable fuels at certain levels by public utilities over the next 20 years. The two bills
are so far apart in who gets the tax benefits that there is some doubt that any bill will be produced capable of
final passage.
ANWR is so important because it has the projected ability to produce oil equivalent to half of all imports from
Persian Gulf countries for 30 years. If ANWR drilling permission is not revived in the conference committee, the
Administration may recommend developing ANWR as an adjunct to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This compromise
may be attractive because the oil would be held in reserve and only used in a crisis.
Heavy reliance on imports is not, by itself, a vulnerability if the oil comes from many and varied sources. The
risk comes from concentration of supply in volatile areas. Mexico, the North Sea, our own Gulf and the Caspian
Basin all have exceeded oil production expectations. Because advanced technologies reduce cost for exploration
and discovery, our nation's energy security is improved when Middle Eastern imports are reduced.
Into that energy situation steps Crown Prince Abdullah, de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. At a visually hilarious
visit to the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas, his oiliness announced to the New York Times that he will attempt to
intimidate the United States by asserting that the Arab states are considering using the "oil weapon"
and demanding that the U.S. abandon their strategic military bases in the region. In the history of hollow threats,
this one ranks high. The Saudis need our military umbrella. They are cash poor at the moment and need constant
oil sales. Over the years, they have invested so much in the world's economies that fully half their income is
derived from investments. Ruin the global economy and they ruin themselves.
Abdullah will warn that all Arabian leaders fear a drift towards radical politics in the Arab street and that the
only way to ward off catastrophic regime change is for the U.S. to impose a peace settlement on the Israelis on
behalf of the Palestinians. Unnamed officials close to the Saudis have already indicated to the press just how
morally bankrupt the Saudis are. The New York Times quotes them "It is a mistake to think that our people
will not do what is necessary to survive. If that means we move to the right of bin Laden, so be it; if to the
left of Quaddafi, so be it; if we have to fly to Baghdad and embrace Saddam like a brother, so be it." We
will defend our position as rulers of our people at any cost, he concluded.
The true face of Riyadh is finally becoming clear to the U.S. population. Our "friends the Saudis" are
increasingly perceived here at home as a corrupt totalitarian regime at sharp odds with American values. Even worse,
is the Saudi Royal family history of a willingness to buy off the most unsavory regimes and groups in order to
retain power. At the top or bottom of the list is the Wahabbi sect of Islam. This 250-year-old murderous cult advocates
death to all who disagree - including fellow Muslims. It is unfailingly hostile to the modern world and expansionist
everywhere. The sect funds media, mosques, schools and civic clubs world-wide in order to broadcast its message
of incitement to violence. In turn, the Wahabbis are funded by the Saudis, both government and private citizens.
The reason there are a dozen U.S. bases with 30,000 troops scattered throughout the Middle East is that the aloof,
spendthrift and corrupt ruling elites are too weak to defend themselves. In typical Arab style, they can only let
the U.S. use its bases if they are certain that Saddam Hussein will be quickly defeated. Central to the Texas discussions
will be the totally differing cultural definitions of terrorism.
Defense Undersecretary Douglas Feith described the Western World- Arab World dicatomy this way:
"It is immoral to seek excuses for terrorism and harmful to reward it. The message of all responsible governments
everywhere should be unwavering - terrorists do not advance their causes. Our ultimate goal is to change the international
environment regarding terrorism - instead of tolerance; the international norm should be the renunciation and repudiation
of the systematic killing of ordinary people. It is not politics. It is not even war. It is a demented and deranged
ideology in action. The root cause of terrorism is organized incitement which creates the atmosphere in which terror
can flourish."
There are three things that would attack this malignancy, Feith concludes. (1) Muslim clerics must renounce the
creation of religious hope. Homicide bombers are committing murder in direct violation of the Koran. (2) Political
leaders must stop granting honors and money to the homicide bombers and their families. (3) Terrorism must not
be seen as a winning strategy for political hopes and must not be rewarded.
In his summary remarks after the meeting in Texas, President Bush made one key statement: "The United States
is involved but not alone." If this means that the Saudis are expected to lead Egypt and Jordan into a collective
effort to muzzle Arafat's terrorists it will not likely prove effective. As the Saudi Royals said, "we only
do what is necessary to survive."
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