In the spirit of the holidays, House Republicans gave more than they got and swallowed
a lot of fudge but avoided going home for Thanksgiving without an airline safety bill. (Prompt action had been
demanded by the President.) The Air Transport Association's economic report, released Thursday, indicated Thanksgiving
holiday traffic would be down 15-20 percent and that annual passenger traffic through mid-November was down 24
percent from a year ago. Projecting the worst year in airline history, the report calculated $2.4 billion in third
quarter losses with the fourth quarter expected to be even higher. That was enough for the conservatives who folded
their free enterprise tent and yielded to the big government knows best crowd.
Having won the day, Democrats allowed an alibi for the Republicans. The grand compromise created a new agency within
the Department of Transportation (the FAA being considered to be too cozy with the airline industry to do a proper
enforcement job).
It also created a special class of Federal employee who could not strike (but could join a union) and could be
immediately disciplined or fired. These employees would be exempt from normal civil services practices though exactly
what happens in the rule writing remains to be seen. The alibi for the Republicans is that after a mandatory federal
three years (one year of phase in and two years of operation) airports would have the right to opt out of using
federal workers but remain under federal supervision. Those opting out would, of course, lose their federal subsidy.
The airline screener contribution of $700 million a year would be frozen and the additional money would be raised
by a tax calculated at $2.50 per boarding but no more than $5.00 each way. For example, a passenger taking a commuter
line to a hub would pay $5.00 but if there were a third leg, such as a transfer, there would be no additional charges.
Unfunded mandates abound. The bill calls for seriously fortified cockpit doors, use of law enforcement officials
or National Guard at airport checkpoints, background checks on all airport personnel, methods to identify high
risk or suspicious passengers and restricting gate areas just to ticketed passengers.
The fudge was largely rolled out on two issues - mandatory complete baggage screening and air marshals. No politician
actually defined "strengthening the air marshal system." There are currently only a few and their pay
is two to three times that of a baggage screener. On the average, there are 31,000 flights a day, every day. While
the impression is being left with the public that "all" flights will have marshals, no such amount of
money has been appropriated. International flights and random domestic flights will carry marshals. The odds of
there being a marshal on board a specific domestic flight is in the 60 to one range and not going to get better
anytime soon.
On domestic flights, bag matching is not required. That means that a person can check a bag and not depart on the
same flight. Matching means nothing to a would-be suicide or to a liar who sends a friend or dupe with a bag.
Currently just ten percent of checked baggage is inspected for explosives. The inspection is reserved for high
risk profile passengers plus some random sampling. Most airports do not have a complement of one million-dollar
machines. Those that do, a recent survey shows, use just 27 percent of them continuously. Airlines will have 60
days to expand inspections and two years to have the ability to inspect all luggage. The experience from El Al
airlines is that an inspection is useless unless the bag is also run through twice at different angles. That doubles
the time. To properly inspect airport inspectors, the FAA figures they would need four times the personnel they
currently employ.
One key to fresh management chaos is that federal employees must be U.S. citizens and as many as 80 percent of
current baggage screeners are not. Those bumped out would still be eligible for airport maintenance jobs. They
require no background or citizenship checks at all after the initial hire.
What's next? As the delays pile up, airlines are expected to severely limit how much luggage each passenger is
allowed. City ticket offices and frequent flyer lounges may be eliminated. Hot meals on three-hour or less flights
may be cut out. Parking spaces at smaller airports do not conform to the FAA distance rule and represent much higher
costs at a time of fewer flights. United has applied for permission to arm all its cockpits with stun guns. The
airline industry has proposed biometric ID cards that would be mandatory for aliens traveling and living in the
United States. They propose to seduce voluntary domestic compliance by allowing the possessor to have access to
expedited routes through screening checkpoints.
This bill will be signed into law before Thanksgiving and presented as a bipartisan accomplishment. What it will
accomplish is an accelerated plea for federal bailouts from all segments of the travel industry. It punts the ball
beyond the 2002 elections without answering in a serious fashion (i.e. value = costs plus benefits minus drawbacks)
Washington's ability to restore a sense of safety and confidence in air travel. On a global basis, the most unpleasant
travel is found on government run airlines. At the moment, this new bill realizes the dream of a government monopoly.
As Anne Coulter writes, " … all travelers are inconvenienced with absolutely no concomitant benefit."
As for the lifeblood of the airlines, the business traveler - private charters are up over 50 percent.
