~ Inside Washington ~
Archives
|
|
|
|
| Potomac Crossings
--By George Mason |
|
A Paler Shade of Green Only when a wealth surplus exists is there the means and the popular support necessary to create and successfully implement green policies. Columnist Austin Bay notes that there is a cadre of intellectually honest ecologists who now seem to be recognizing that the net wealth of society determines the ability of people to produce the environmental programs the elite’s desire. By contrast, when a green-oriented bureaucracy destroys wealth building, it also destroys the ability of society to create the sustainable environment they profess to want. Some politicians and bureaucrats impede wealth production from economic ignorance and some have other carefully hidden anti-capitalist agendas. Recently, France’s prime minister and presidential candidate Lionel Jospin confirmed that over the last 30 years, he feigned allegiance to the democratic left while retaining secret membership in the IVth International, a secret Marxist organization dedicated to the violent overthrow of democratic governments. Strong economies have the means to invest in the advanced technology that produces efficient energy use and cleaner environments. As the world moves towards recession, serious people may begin to grapple with the serious questions raised by the Kyoto Protocols. Here is what they will find. Confronting a Litany of Lies. Ex Greenpeace activist and current associate professor of political science at the University of Aarhus in Denmark, statistician Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, will publish his new book in September. It is called The Skeptical Environmentalist and can be preordered through Amazon or Barnes and Noble. It is also available in England at (www.bookshop.co.uk). In his exhaustive new book, Dr. Lomborg assesses the drive against fossil fuels and concludes that efforts to reduce global warming will have considerable costs – about US$ 5 trillion – but that the effect on the climate will be miniscule. The question, he suggests, is that the highest and best use of five trillion dollars? The answer is no. In essence, fully implementing the Kyoto Protocols would not negate global warming but only postpone its effects to 2100 from 2094,a "gain" of six years at the end of the next century. As the treaty now stands, including global emissions trading would not only be unattainable, it would be of no consequence for the climate and also constitute a very poor use of resources during a decline in the global economy. For example, Dr. Lomborg says, the most pressing single problem in the world is providing the global population with clean drinking water and sanitation. That problem, when solved, would avoid two million deaths and prevent 500 million serious illnesses annually. Kyoto implementation would cost at least twice as much as water and sanitation programs. Spending money now on the developing world helps present inhabitants and through them, their descendants as well. Enact Kyoto and the world will lose, he concludes. There are better things to do with the money. Global warming is not anywhere near the most important problem in the world. Economic development within a global setting is. The typical cure of early and radical fossil fuel cutbacks is way worse than the affliction. Contradicting the Litany. Food is not becoming scarcer but more abundant. Developments in agricultural technology allow higher yields per acre, for example. That means fewer acres have to be cultivated and more land is available for biodiversity programs. Population growth has an internal check, as people grow richer and healthier, they have smaller families. We are not running out of energy or natural resources. Why are the doomsayers so wrong? Lomborg identifies four factors causing this disjunction between public perception and reality. (He does not discuss a fifth – the political use of the "Precautionary Principle" to erect trade barriers.) One is lopsided scientific research. Funding is thrown at perceived problems. Therefore, one big, well-known problem can generate hundreds of funding proposals. A dozen little bitty problems will generate no funding and therefore no proposals. A problem of which the population is aware seems bigger than a problem of which they are not aware. So funding is ruled by publicity in many cases. The self-interest of activists includes a constant need to be noticed in the mass media in order to prove effectiveness and generate donor interest. Ron Arnold’s book Undue Influence states that in the United States alone there are some 12,000 environmental groups, virtually all of which are dependent on annual grants and donor drives. The pressure creates a great temptation to exaggerate their positions for the purpose of grabbing attention. To raise money, you need a devil. To fight the devil, you need skilled mercenaries. The third source of public confusion is the prevailing emotional hype in the media. The 24-hour cable shows, to take just one example, need controversy to create energy. The press generally does not apply the same degree of skepticism to environmental activists as they do to their opponents. A significant distortion is created when a report describes the damages but not the benefits of an event, Lomborg says. Bad news sells. Apocalypse Now brings in the crowds. The reporting on El Nino is a perfect example. The higher winter temperatures it created reduced heating costs and diminished spring floods and El Nino produced the situation where there were no major hurricanes in 1998. While it created some $4 billion in damage, it also produced $19 billion in benefits. The final point is poor individual perception. It is well noted that our schools produce double handfuls of scientific illiterates in a high-tech age. The scientific evidence is that the world is basically headed in the right direction and we need to focus on reasonable priorities. A population unacquainted with science easily falls prey to short-term, feel-good solutions that spend hard-earned money on relatively trifling issues and thereby deprive far more important problems from needed but scarce resources. Knowing the real state of the world, says Lomborg, is important because fear of largely imaginary environmental problems diverts political energy from dealing with higher priority real issues that have an effect on the people who are alive today. The truth is that the world is getting better but there is still much to do. Environmentalism in a Recession. This is America’s first New Economy recession, according to columnist Stephen Moore. American investors of all stripes have lost between $4-5 trillion in wealth over the last 18 months. There is no market signal that these losses will be recouped anytime soon. There is no federal activity afoot that would revive growth. We are in new territory – a recession driven by a lack of investment, not the conventional lack of consumer purchases. The effect is both world wide and local. All but one state operates under balanced budget requirements so state action quickly reflects local reality. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers no less than 17 states have budget shortfalls and 30 states are cutting established appropriations. Anti-growth proposals of all kinds gush forth from the Left on a daily basis. The idea that the federal government should tightly retain a $ 158 billion tax over-charge in a time of economic decline is beyond ludicrous. It is 1932 Hooverism revisited. The same lack of quality thought is evident in advocating that Social Security recipients be denied any chance to build personal wealth, accept a rate of return far lower than the market and not own their own resources because not having the federal government in charge is "too risky." What happened where the federal system was replaced? Testimony this week about the 21-year-old Social Security alternative in Galveston showed that a retiree under their plan who averaged $25-26,000 during his or her working life would receive at 65 a personally-owned reserve of $364,000 and monthly pension payments of $1921 instead of Social Security payments of $1007. The Galveston system uses a banking model that does not invest in stocks, only bonds and financial instruments. It has consistently returned between seven and eight percent per annum compared to less than two percent under Social Security. It maintains equivalent or better survivorship and disability benefits as well. It is a time for fewer lies; less violence, physical or verbal; more efforts at consensus and a decent regard for the poor who will suffer from the proposed actions of the green elite. The estimated 100,000 trained anti-capitalist agitators that will descend on the World Bank Washington meeting next month can all afford to get here. Their objective is to turn the world into a giant Klamath Basin. Poor people cannot conquer poverty without inexpensive energy sources. Add a buck to the cost of gasoline and the SUV driver grumbles as he fills up but the poor can’t get to work or heat their homes. The black art of intimidation will be vigorously practiced in the months ahead. The issue, as always, is whether or not a timid leadership will succumb to fear mongers.
|
|
Back to Inside Washington Archive || Current Inside Washington || Home CURRENT NEWS: ALL HEADLINES To report broken links or other problems with this site please
contact:
© The Timeshare Beat |
