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--By George Mason |
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The 123-Day Presidency On May 24th of 2001, Jumpin’ Jim Jeffords (I-VT) announced that the fundamental principles he stood for – moderation, tolerance and fiscal responsibility – were not being served by his Republican Party and he would henceforth be an Independent aligned with the caucus of the Democrats for organizational purposes. The Blue Nation had attacked the Red Nation. Democrats regained the control of the Senate that they had lost in 1994. (See the precinct by precinct electoral map for the 2000 presidential election – The red nation is mostly the heartland states and the blue nation primarily the coastal perimeter of San Diego to Seattle, the Great Lakes and New England.) As a result of the Republicans' poor decision-making during the Senate races of 2000, the Bush-Cheney presidency has ended. It can claim as significant accomplishments tax and education reform, but no longer could the Republicans rely on a narrow but solid conservative majority in the House and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Cheney to move their agenda through Congress. However, their basic strategy of forming issue by issue coalitions remains intact. The same 100 votes will be in the Senate next week as last. The New York Times observed that dramatic transformations of the political landscape usually result from the votes counted on Election Day, not the actions of one person. Indeed, Senator Jefford’s actions were unprecedented. A politician with a 27-year national Republican history, he achieves his lasting claim to history by creating the first shift of party control in the Senate ever to be caused by something other than an election. Jeffords' solitary action effectively negates the wishes of the voters of 50 states. Unlike the Republicans, Democrats play to win. The Senate will not see accommodationist Trent Lott’s 9-9 committees but antagonist Tom Daschle’s 10-8 committees with corresponding staff reductions for the minority. The likely, but not yet certain, key Committee Chairmen will be:
On party-line votes, there won’t be any ties for Vice President Cheney to break. Liberal Democrats will control the Senate floor schedule, the timing, makeup and scope of committee hearings, the nature of oversight and investigative meetings and what witnesses will be heard. The democrats expect to have sufficient power to veto any Bush proposal and stop or stall sub-cabinet appointees, ambassadors and judiciary nominations that they don’t like. At the moment less that 12 percent of sub-cabinet appointees are confirmed and Clinton hold-overs are still in place. The republicans have a hollow administration that is not expected to be up to full speed until next February. On the other hand, Republicans still control the House of Representatives and occupy the White House with its bully pulpit. In truth, Congress is in balance and that is often what electors say they want. The question is – what next, centrist action or gridlock? To understand the answer to that question, two prevailing myths need to be erased. Jefford’s principled motive. Jim Jeffords sold his organizational vote (a party, not an individual, matter) for a Chairmanship under the Democrats who normally select by seniority. They enticed Jeffords with the environmental chair because it was within his power to stall and damage the momentum of the Bush agenda. There is nothing here but pure political calculation, no principled position is involved. Senator Jeffords was dependent on seniority, not popularity (he was known as Clinton’s favorite Republican) for his current education chairmanship. Term limited, he would lose the Republican post in 18 months, anyway. At 67, Jeffords figured if Strom Thurmond’s health failed before he made a move he would end his career as a Senator in a minority party. The same if the Democrat’s won in 2002 or 2004. His "lack of influence" argument fails in that he got what he wanted on both the tax and education bills. He struck while the iron was hot. The Republican’s Controlled the Senate. No one party controlled the Senate. Today’s politics is not between the parties but between competing ideologies. For Cato Institute’s David Kopel, there is ultimately one question – "Who is more trustworthy, the government or the people? " The tax rate battle has been philosophically real. The higher the taxes, the more spending decisions are made by government. The lower the taxes, the more spending decisions are made by free citizens. Each party has elected representatives who answer the question both ways. In rough terms, the Democrats have 35 or so who almost always favor the government and are called Progressives by the press and 15 or so who favor the people and are called moderates or conservatives. The Republicans have 40 or so conservatives and 10 or so moderates and liberals. Liberal or conservative, neither side has the 60 votes needed to stop a filibuster. Neither can over-ride a veto. The Majority Leader’s dilemma of controlling his delegation is the same for Lott as for Daschle. His presence clarifies and personalizes the opposition for the Republicans and gives them something current to run against. The difference is that now it will be Daschle and the Democrats that will be the target of counterpunches as the obstructionist, do-nothing party. When and if Daschle’s labors result in a passed bill, it will still be the President who gets the credit for signing it. The most telling extreme liberal statement from the Jefford’s press conference was when he said about the Bush tax plan " We just can’t give all that money back. We need it." In the next ten years, the federal government will take in and spend an estimated $28.6 trillion dollars. It will take in as tax over-payments of another $5.6 trillion. The compromise Bush tax plan that passed was in fact engineered by Jeffords. It lays claim to just $1.35 trillion of the over-charges, leaving the rest for additional government spending or debt reduction. For the Republicans, the Jefford’s bugle call is crystal clear - get over the Eisenhower years. Whether the establishment Republicans approve or not, it’s Dick Morris who understands the culture of conflict that exists today. To win the next election, Bush needs to adopt the strategy of the permanent campaign, triangulate within Congress where he can and use the President’s bully pulpit to leap over the Senate when he has to. It doesn’t matter how nice the President is if nobody fears him. His goal must be to defeat every unfriendly Blue Congressman or Senator who dwells in the Red Nation or be ruled by such as Jumpin’ Jim. It’s not a civil debate between bipartisan friends. To the left, it’s civil war between mortal enemies. ### |
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