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Potomac Crossings --By George Mason


There are about ten percent of the electorate still undecided and the candidates are for all practical purposes dead even. About ten percent of people polled believe not only that Elvis is alive but that if they wrote him a letter he would read it. Are they the same ten percent?

Time To Get Serious

It’s debate week. What will we debate? The biased press? The power of incumbency? A spendthrift Congress? Issues? A vision of the future? Probably not. In Michael Kelly’s inelegant phrase, the debate is Dumb or Dishonest?

In Kelly’s view, about one in four voters will make their choice on the basis of who they honestly think is better fit to run the country. They will carry the day. The rest who are there for issues or ideology will cancel each other out. This "saving remnant" can choose between a man who is smarter than they think, but just by a little bit, or a man who is more corroded than they imagine by more than a little bit.

In Bush’s case, they will need to make a judgement on his capacities to govern. That means not only those he will pick to advise him but how prepared he is to make judgements among their conflicting opinions.

In Gore’s case, the preparation and the experience are obvious. The key question remains - have his experiences left him rusted through and hollow at the core?

The judgement of those good citizens who really make an effort to discern character is vital this year. The fundamental direction of the nation may well be determined in all three branches of government this time around. Can global capitalism meet the needs of all or only some? Is the socialist dream shrinking or growing?

Throughout the judiciary but especially in the Supreme Court, whether we are to continue divided government or experience a unified executive and legislature will determine the tone of law for decades to come. Three Justices are over 70 and two have health problems. The court is generally considered to be 5-4, leaning slightly towards the right. In reality, it is more like 4-3-2 for moderation and the preservation of the status quo. The next slug of appointments, especially of younger men and women, establishes the tenor of decisions for decades to come. Lower judges, selected in the same environment, will foster the same world view.

While the Senate may not turn to a Democrat majority in 2000, the Republicans could well be so weakened by a 1-2 vote majority that they would lose control in 2002 and not regain it for decades. This is a phenomenon of the age of the Senators and the timing of their first election and not their politics. More Republicans are vulnerable. Think Strom Thurman and Jesse Helms.

The House only has about ten percent of its seats that are actually competitive. If there are presidential coattails, then one party or the other could win by the slimmest of margins. They would organize the Chairmanships. Next in line for the Democrats are senior members far to the left of their own party. On the other hand, the margins are so slight that either party will have to deal with 20 dissident votes on key issues. The races are so tight that the voters will need extreme skill to re-create gridlock. One slight move will create a president and a Congress from the same party. Which party? One far to the left of what we have seen in decades or one able to begin to shed the statist status quo and move with the trends of global dynamic capitalism?

To this point, both candidates have demonstrated excellent judgement in their choices for Vice President. Both are well-qualified men of character. Both men have risen to the challenge when confronted with major events. Does the nation prefer a man who would pick Condoleeza Rice as an advisor or one who would pick Naomi Wolfe?
 



George Mason, 1725-92, was known as the Sage of Gunston Hall. His Virginia declaration of rights, written in 1776, was the model for the first section of the Declaration of Independence. A friend of Patrick Henry and Thomas Jefferson, Mason was an original drafter of the Constitution and the first ten amendments to the Bill of Rights. He refused, however, to sign the final version of the Constitution because he thought it did too little for individuals and, without the Bill of Rights, gave too much power to the government.This column honors his memory.


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