North Korean tyrant Kim Jong il has an itty bitty one. At least that's
the first impression of the international community after that country's abortive attempt to light off a nuclear
device. You can get a bigger bang out of a pile of ammonium nitrate fertilizer. North Korea has devoted its precious
few resources to creating a missile that can't fly and a nuke than doesn't explode. Why?
North Korea is a true narco-terror criminal enterprise. Its economy is based on counterfeiting currency, selling
imitation pharmaceuticals and real narcotics and trafficking in armaments. Recently, the regime has opened the
door to small amounts of capitalism and that has relieved a bit of the overwhelming poverty in this nation of 23
million, but essentially they have criminal income.
In the modern terror world, state proxies can detonate a bomb without leaving a return address. Kim, who is not
crazy but depraved, proposes to make North Korea the supplier to others of deadly weapons, rather than to be an
international aggressor himself. Iranians and Pakistanis have both been present at recent tests. One aspect of
the tests may prove to be a demonstration for potential customers or developmental partners of various trigger
mechanisms and portable launchers.
"Everyone," says columnist Charles Krauthammer, "has tried to figure out how to disarm North Korea.
It will not happen. Kim Jong il is not going to give up nukes." So we are well beyond disarmament and into
deterrence. 'Deterrence," Krauthammer continues, "is what you do when there is no way to disarm your
enemy. You cannot deprive him of his weapons, but you can keep him from using them."
The administration's first response emphasized two key points - The U.S. will fully meet its treaty obligations
to defend our allies in the region and the U.S. will engage in serious programs to deter transference of nuclear
resources to state or non-state actors.
A revised U.N. resolution is under discussion at the moment. The draft is in reaction to Pyongyang's deliberate
nuclear brinksmanship, regardless of whether the test was a failure or not. The six party talks between North Korea,
South Korea, Japan, the United States, Russia and China are dormant and deferring to the U.N. Security Council
for the moment. The successor to Kofi Annan has been sworn in but will not officially take office until the beginning
of January. He is Ban Ki-moon, a South Korean career diplomat aligned with the "Sunshine Policy" appeasement
wing of his nation's politics.
Russia and China, armed with vetoes, are seeking to delay a vote on the resolution in the interest of "working
out a more moderate response." The United States and Japan have already imposed sanctions.
The current proposed Resolution is under Chapter Seven of the U.N. charter which authorizes economic sanctions,
naval blockades and military action. Current co-sponsors to the U.S. include Britain, France, and Japan. A delay
in voting is officially being caused by concerns over the wide scope of financial sanctions and a specific provision
authorizing the inspection of both in-bound and out-bound North Korean shipping. Boarding a sovereign nation's
ships is considered an act of war.
The Resolution condemns the so-called or so-claimed nuclear test, demands that North Korea immediately return to
the six-party talks and demands that North Korea not conduct any further tests or launch any ballistic missiles.
The North Koreans response has been that if people didn't leave them alone they will launch a nuclear-tipped missile
towards the United States.
The final compromise draft may require all countries to prevent the sale of arms, material and technology that
could contribute to North Korea's nuclear, ballistic missile or any other weapons-related program. It would also
impose a travel ban on North Korean's involved in these programs. States could inspect cargo "as necessary"
to ensure compliance and to prevent illegal trafficking. Most air and rail transport to North Korea comes through
China. Fuel and food are exempt from sanctions.
Clearly the Western powers have not come to terms with a nuclear East Asia. The U.S.military option is not available
at this time. North Korea is perhaps worse than Cuba in demonstrating the cruelty and folly of total economic sanctions.
Strict sanctions cause suffering people to rally around their tyrant because the enemy is blamed for their condition.
The people who pay the price are not the isolated and privileged elite but the common folks who have nothing to
do with the dilemma and are powerless to change things. Those who have the power to make changes are usually untouched,
drawing down whatever resources are available for their own comfort.
Diplomats must also clearly keep in mind that it would have been impossible for North Korea to undertake its adventures
without the encouragement of China.
Columnist Anand Kumar sums up the advantages to China this way:
- A nuclear North Korea upsets the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula,
weakening South Korea and Japan relative to China. It opens another front
against the United States through the actions of proxies. It puts hurdles in
any deal between India and the United States by giving the left in the United
States ammunition to oppose a nuclear agreement between India and the U.S.
China and Russia are the powers behind the throne in North Korea, says analyst Ben Shapiro, He expects a China-Russia
alliance involving North Korea and Iran. These two large and ambitious nations are the global beneficiaries of
the Islamic-Western clash of civilizations. Beneath the surface, Russia and China remain committed to dictatorship
and repression. Stalinist Russia and Maoist China have been allied in the past. They are both Machiavellian in
their diplomatic policies. Iran wants to attack Israel as soon as it has nukes. North Korea can be more than a
buffer state; it can keep South Korea and Japan at bay. Both Iran and North Korea can gig the United States without
Chinese or Russian footprints.
In the meantime, that leaves the United States in the debilitating position of fighting two enemies at once - Islam
in the front yard and a China-Russia alliance in the back. Radical Islam must be fought on the battlefield, Shapiro
says, China economically and Russia diplomatically.
Neither the Clinton/Carter bribery policy of a bouquet of carrots and no stick nor the Bush policy of a multilateral
diplomatic squeeze has worked. That is primarily because North Korea is run by paranoid criminals who care only
about the survival of their regime and not their country. It is secondarily caused because both strategies relied
on constant and steady Chinese cooperation for success.
Columnist Austin Bay puts the question to China:
The answer to regime change in North Korea lies in a land and maritime embargo that is effectively enforced.
It is unlikely to come form the U.N.
Update: On Saturday, October 14th, the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to impose sanctions.
While the resolution rules our military action against North Korea, it demands the elimination of all the nation's
nuclear weapons and embargoes trade in all of their major conventional military hardware and material.
October 13, 2006
