If you look at virtually any recent federal election, you know it's about World
Series time when the lefty media and Democratic operatives begin their twice-a-week bomb throwing. So far we have
had the Hearing of the Generals calling for the resignation of Secretary Rumsfield; the official NYT leak of the
classified National Intelligence Estimate, which described without seeing the text some of the "on the one
hand" points without revealing the "on the other hand" points; the publication of old faithful's
book that said things were worse in Iraq without suggesting any measurable way to determine if the charge is true
or not and, finally - the sordid but pitiful tale of a lonely pipsqueak who didn't understand that cyber text can't
be erased. To the best of prevailing knowledge, Foley never saw any of the pages involved in person. Partisan operatives
have promised more to come - including the "outing" of gay Republicans.
All this "aggressive tricks" effort by the Democrats is being done to convince the Values Voter to stay
home on Election Day.
When the MSM goes off on one of its feeding frenzies, energy replaces thinking. Facts are no longer in evidence
and distortions abound. As reported in Powerline, there are three possible narratives of Majority Leader Hastert's
performance on the Foley issue.
- Hastert (or perhaps his staff) decided to keep the parental complaint about Foley from the bipartisan Page
Board. That is a severe misjudgment if the complaint had been lodged several months ago.
- Hastert didn't know about the complaint. His staff kept it from him and the Page Board. That's damning but
not so much to Hastert.
- The staff members initiated a process by which the situation was presented quietly to the head of the Page
Board, Rep. Shimkus, who resolved the matter based on the facts known at the time. That's an expected and reasonable
performance. It has not been refuted.
The criticism of the Speaker should not exceed what the facts describe. Other dissatisfactions with the Speaker's
performance are not a matter for Republicans in the run up to a critical election. Democrats who want to charge
cover up will have to contend with the fact that delaying known evidence until election time is itself a cover
up.
So far, social conservatives seem to be more annoyed than alarmed. They understand that if they don't like the
Republicans and allow the Democrats to win control of Congress their agenda will be left behind. They need to consider
three things: (1) The Republican election advantage; (2) the economy and (3) the global war against Islamo-fascism.
The Republican Strengths.
- Money. The Republicans are prepared to spend three times as much as Democrats
on key races. Five weeks is still a fair amount of time. The replacement in the Foley district, Joe Negron, brings
a personal war chest of a million dollars with him. In the 60 days before the election, Republicans plan to spend
$235 million to the Democrat's $58 million. Voter turn out efforts will be funded at $60 million compared to $14
million for the opposition.
Redistricting. In the year the Republicans came to power, 1994, there were over 100 seats in contention
and they had a net pickup of 54 seats. This year, fewer than 35 seats are open to contests. While the polls show
general disgust with "Congress," they do not show dislike for a district's own representative. It's that
old doctor phenomena, your doctor is a quack, my doctor is a genius. Almost all incumbents enjoy majority support
in their area.
The 72-Hour Task Force. Knowing that President Bush did not have coattails, the Republican Party has invested
heavily in the mechanics of elections. In 40 House seats and a dozen Senate races, the Republicans have sophisticated
get-out-the-vote operatives equipped with tested methods focused on the last three days of the campaign. This system
is worth 3-4 percentage points per district in generating turnout.
Microtargeting. This system used computerized consumer data to select new voters who are likely to vote
Republican. A significant advantage of this high tech system is that it allows effective low-tech personal contacts.
Young volunteers can justify their expenses by calling the right telephone and knocking on the right door. It applies
to absentee voters and vote-by-mail ballot systems as well. These unpaid volunteers guided by thoughtful plans,
proved far more effective that the Democrat's paid union crews.
The Economy.
This week the Dow set three all-time highs in a row. Unemployment is well under 5 percent. Gas prices are falling.
The interpretation of the market seems to be that it is in the advanced stage of a recovery that is driven by declining
energy prices.
The Treasury announced that the federal deficit was now forecast at $250 billion. This compares with a forecast
of $423 billion in February.
Nancy Pelosi announced that the economy needed fixing. She proposed that all the Bush tax cuts be allowed to lapse,
that the minimum wage be raised and that new regulations be passed immediately. She said that this could be done
in her first 100 hours as Madame Speaker of the House.
The War
Governing in wartime is a serious business done by adults. Using a summary in Investor's Business Daily,
we can describe the Democratic record on foreign policy.
The Carter Administration
Believing that Americans had an inordinate fear of communism, President Carter (1976-80) lifted travel bans to
Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. He pardoned draft evaders.
Carter stopped production of the B-1 bomber, gave away the Panama Canal and declared human rights to be his central
foreign policy.
He cut military and intelligence budgets (some by 45 %) and hamstrung them with regulations. The he abandoned the
Shah of Iran, creating the opportunity for Ayatollah Khomenei to take over and create an Islamic state. In gratitude
to Carter, Khomeni created The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Hezballah.
In 1979, non-uniformed agents, including the current President Ahmadinejad, stormed the American Embassy and captured
52 U.S. personnel. They were held hostage for 444 days until Ronald Reagan was President. Six months after their
capture, Carter attempted a rescue which turned into a compete fiasco. Carter was "shocked" when the
USSR invaded Afghanistan. The communism we need no longer fear advanced world-wide: Ethiopia, South Yemen, Angola,
Cambodia, Mozambique, Grenada and Nicaragua.
Many of these locations allowed the USSR to block oil lanes.
Carter capped his political career in the Clinton years by going to North Korea and "negotiating" the
peace agreement under which North Korea developed its nuclear capability.
The Clinton Years.
During the Reagan years, Democrats had blocked the efforts to develop a missile defense system and proposed, via
John Kerry, a nuclear freeze that would permanently guarantee Russian tactical nuclear superiority in Europe. The
general theme, advanced by Kerry, was retreat, give up and give our enemies what they wanted - the French approach.
In the Reagan years, tax cuts set off a seven-year boom that created 20 million new jobs, dropped inflation from
12% to 3% and reduced interest rates from Carter's 21% to 7.5 %.
The USSR collapsed from faults in its own economy.
President Clinton was elected in 1992. The World Trade Center was bombed the first time in February of 1993. About
1,000 were injured and six killed. It was regarded by the administration as a police action, not war.
In October of 1993, a Somali warlord supported by al-Qaida trainers, shot down two U.S. Blackhawk helicopters,
18 U.S. service personnel were killed and 73 wounded. Under pressure from a Democratic Congress, Clinton ordered
retreat and withdrawal. Osama later said, "They rushed out in shame."
The rest we know. Convinced that America was too cowardly to fight, the Islamo-fascists launched raid after raid
all over the world.
Encouraging the environmentalist movement, the Democrats blocked all efforts to drill in offshore locations. In
1952 the U.S. produced 93% of its own oil. Today, it imports 66% of its needs.
We have energy, war and immigration to deal with in the coming years. Gridlock won't protect the nation. A battle
between the Congressional power of the purse and the Presidential power of the veto won't protect us either.
Surely the flitter flutter over pathetic cyber flirting can now end. Foley is icky. He resigned. Let's move along.
There is a war going on.
September 29, 2006
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