Pundits of all stripes are playing a game of "Who won? Who lost?" this
week in Washington. Since most of their projections tell a reader a lot more about the pundit than about the prediction,
here is a way that you can do your own prognostications.
It's nearly sunset on a summer's eve in Texas. Friends are gathering. Pretend you are the President of the United
States. (Don't pretend you are anybody else, you take the responsibility yourself.)
The game is Texas Hold 'em. Under the fantasy rules, you must play five of the seven cards by September 15th. Here
is this week's deal.
Energy. The calculation has been made that in the rise from $25 a barrel to $75 a barrel, there is $500
billion in excess profits. That money is circulating without accountability throughout the world of energy suppliers.
It represents a drain of wealth from the highly productive industrialized nations and a gift of unfathomed dimension
to the supplier nations. Such sums ignite greed.
Much of the oil money passes through the hands of individuals and organizations openly hostile to the West. Hatred
and envy drive religious fervor in many of their nations.
The result is a significant portion of the free world's leadership advocate financing our enemies so we can sell
them stuff. An underlying factor seems to be that the ruling elites believe that America and the West are so strong
that they cannot lose and therefore should be weakened around the edges to make things more equal The younger elites,
if truth be told, are doing well and do not want to be disturbed.
In South Africa this week, newspapers carried stories about an operational plant which manufactured oil from superheated
coal. The seed product (Coke) is well known in the steel-making industry. The technology is proven. It currently
takes 120,000 metric tons of coal to produce 160,000 barrels of oil using heat, steam and oxygen. The United States
has just 2 percent of the world's oil but 27 percent of the world's coal. An aggressive development program could
be based on proven and familiar technologies. We could increase supply, will we?
Propaganda Media. The Hizballah War corroborated two things about a large portion of the main stream media
(MSM). First, they are eager to take sides in their reporting up to and including altering the news. This time
they went beyond the usual leaving out or emphasizing reports according to the reporter's politics.
Numerous instances were reported of photographers enhancing through Photoshop their images of war. Photographs
were staged. Damage in one area was captioned to describe another area. Victims were posed.
The second issue was perhaps even more disturbing. When MSM organizations were caught red-handed, they fired some
individuals but did not change their policies or procedures. They simply continued seeking and altering the news
to favor Hizballah.
It became evident that Israel (nor the United States) had any effective counter to the planned distortion of the
news by the major reporting services. The intimidation of on-site reporters was obvious. Field reporters were accompanied
by "minders." The minders had copies of each reporter's passport. With their identity known, reporters
were easily vulnerable to muggings, kidnappings or murder. Two Fox journalists have, in fact, been kidnapped.
As a result of the danger, most journalists retained local stringers to actually do the fieldwork and interviews.
Stringers speak the language and are able to pass freely among the populace. No one seemed to ask that if they
could pass freely among terrorists whose side did the terrorists think they were representing?
Glenn Reynolds asks the proper question: Can a free press survive if the public concludes that it's in the business
of purveying politically motivated propaganda on behalf of civilization's enemies?
Israel. The depth of their political defeat is still not appreciated. Israel lost the war on all fronts.
This is because their elected leaders refused to allow their military to do its job. As a result of chronic dithering
not found outside of Old Europe, the politicians produced the very thing they feared the most - world condemnation
over using excessive force that harmed civilians and Arab contempt for their weakness. Arab cultures understand
conquerors and conquered. The rest is irrelevant.
The Israeli kidnapped soldiers are still missing. The rocket launches were not stopped but increased, causing the
complete cessation of the local economy. Hizballah survives in Southern Lebanon with numerous weapons caches and
bunkers still intact and still hidden. The main smuggling routs to Syria are unharmed. Sheikh Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
has been elevated to a public position in the Middle East perhaps even above Osama. He has commanded a successful
Arab army.
For the first time, an Israeli army faced an Arab army and did not defeat it - did not render it incapable of continued
resistance, says George Friedman. The state-within-a-state turns out to be Lebanon, not Hizballah.
United Nations. Ordered to disarm, Hizballah says publicly that it will not. The Syrian sock puppet leaders
of Lebanon say that they will not. However they have negotiated an understanding that they will not look for Hizballah
weapons or bunkers if Hizballah will not parade before television cameras showing their weapons. The French are
going to help the disgraced UNIFIL just as soon as they can but it might take a year or more to get there. Few
can imagine the French politician who reports that a French soldier is going to shoot at a Muslim because he is
protecting an Israeli.
Performing at a level remindful of Warren Christopher, Secretary Rice insists that UNSCR 1701 delivers the "construct
for a lasting peace, if fully implemented." Inane is a good word to describe that proposition. Implementation
is always the issue. That is like saying that if people were good we would need fewer laws. What rational person
could believe that Iran intends to not resupply Hizballah with more and better weapons? A strong Hizballah is a
part of its defense against an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Hizballah. It would be hard to construct a scenario of this past month that would make Hizballah appear
to be any more blessed by Allah. It attacks and the world press portrays it as a victim. Its soldiers wear no uniforms
and the MSM calls them civilian casualties. Iran's money can be used to get global do-gooder headlines at will.
Their army and tactics have now been "blooded" and found to be effective. The possibility of quietly
controlling Lebanon is within Hizballah's grasp. Its patron, Iran, has gained the upper hand over the Sunni Salafist/Wahabbi
faction of radicalism.
In comparative populations, says Dennis Miller, the Arab world is the size of a football field and Israel is the
size of a pack of matches. To survive, Israel had to be invincible. All that Hizballah needed was to get the Israeli
forces to halt before they won. The Israelis did that to themselves. The whirlwind will have to be endured.
Iraq. That nation is really not in a civil war as much as it is in a war between private militias. If
the United States still has the will to win, victory will require more Iraqi troops and more American troops plus
a genuine effort at rebuilding the local economy. (Refineries in Sunni areas?) Early withdrawal would bring Iran
to Iraq in force - something that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan couldn't tolerate In such a struggle, who would
America support?
The success of Hizballah rings in the halls of Tehran. The sirens call is for them to unleash the Mahdi Army. The
Shia centers of Ali Sistani are all that stand in the way.
Iran. The current leader of Iran feels that he has been called to hasten Armageddon. There is no way
to keep Iran from having a nuclear capacity short of a pre-emptive strike. Iran with Shia nukes means Sunni nukes.
Enjoy the game.
Except it's not a game.
August 18, 2006
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