On July 31, 2006, the Cuban government announced that their leader for 47 years, Fidel Castro,
79, was temporarily handing over the reins of power to his 75-year-old brother Raul. The reason? Fidel needed dangerous
and extensive surgery.
The next day, the U.S. Senate passed 71-25 a bill to open up 8.3 million acres of ocean floor in the Gulf of Mexico
for oil and natural gas exploration. The House passed a more expansive bill last month and the two versions will
now go to conference after the August recess. Without the legislation, the United States will find itself watching
as China, Venezuela and Cuban consortiums drill within sight of Key West. In a fit of stupidity uncommon even to
the Greens, the U.S. had put itself in the position of watching rivals take the oil with unregulated operations
while America dithered.
At the same time, the head of government in Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, was traveling in Russia on a tour of AK-47
manufacturing plants. While there, Chavez signed a series of deals worth a billion dollars. The money went for
100,000 rifles; 24 Sukhoi Su-35 Super Flanker jet fighters and assorted knickknacks which will make Venezuela the
big, bad kid on the block in South America. In addition, Chavez signed a joint oil exploration deal with Russia
to develop significant exploration fields in the Orinoco River basin. With these deals, South America opens up
to a tri-partite attack coming from a cooperating combination of international banking and trading organizations,
Russian intelligence using a commercial cover and Russian organized crime groups. As Castro fades, Chavez dreams
of replacing him as a world leader.
A dim bulb at best, Chavez does understand oil and violence as twin weapons in his arsenal.
What ever else happens, after this week Castroism will be gone. If Fidel is senile, dead or dying, his brother
Raul isn't far behind. A bit younger but a long-time alcoholic suffering from cirrhosis of the liver, the dull
but treacherous Raul is, at best, a transition figure.
Cuba's 11 million people and its one million exiles rightly wonder what's next. While the sock puppet press has
always drooled over Fidel's charisma and his cult of personality, the blunt fact is that Fidel ruled Cuba through
fear and internal repression. Though claiming to be ideological, the Castro brother's regime carries all the ear-marks
of a standard Latin American family dictatorship. For 53 years, the man in charge of the agencies of oppression
- military, police and regulatory ministries - has always been Raul.
A sturdy family at that, we would have to say. The Castros have survived nine U.S. presidents, the collapse of
their Soviet benefactors and 40 years of American efforts to topple them. Cuba demonstrates beyond a doubt why
sanctions don't work. They hurt the wrong people.
The U.S. agreed to take 20,000 Cuban citizens a year. Thus Castro could shuffle off dissidents and still jail his
most dangerous rivals. The U.S. sanctions frustrated attempts by the Cuban people to generate capital and thereby
have the resources to challenge the regime from within the state. Nationalized banks and businesses deprived Cubans
of any way to accumulate private wealth. The PR result of sanctions was to create a siege mentality that Castro
could exploit. Columnist Ian Bremmer, writing in the Washington Post, concludes that "Castro and the United
States have essentially worked together to isolate the Cuban people."
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote on Thursday about her innovative approach to the matter
of succession in Cuba. She suggests we use the dynamics of capitalism to ignore the candidates for Cuban dictator
and make partnerships with the people. Global capitalism is a proven success. Just open the gates.
The current issue of The Economist, for example, examines the economic prospects of 27 countries. It concludes
that we are seeing economic convergence. That is, the narrowing of economic inequality across the world. "It's
not just India and China anymore," the article states, "Today's economic growth has spread to all major
regions of the world."
Latin America, for example, averaged 3.4 percent GDP growth in the 1990's. It is expected to grow 5.0 percent in
2006. Cuba, in the meantime, exists on Venezuelan cash and subsidies.
"So what would happen," Ms. Noonan asks, "if we treat the end of Castroism as an opportunity?"
Flood the zone, she suggests. Declare the old ways over. Announce a new Cuban-American relationship that opens
the door to commerce and human interaction. Allow American investment and tourism. Reach out one by one to offer
opportunity to the citizens of Cuba.
Let the Castro family - Papa Doc and Baby Doc - drown in democratic values and the incipient prosperity it brings
with it, she says. Declare Castro family dictatorships at an end. Create new ties. Let the Cubans profit as the
Castro sycophants fade away.
We don't need a military attack, Noonan explains, the marketplace can do the heavy lifting. In the short run, the
President can do little. However, once back from their August break, the Congress could do much.
Congress can repeal the 1996 Helms-Burton Act which keeps the U.S. government from lifting sanctions until Castro
announced elections and frees political prisoners. Castro is no longer in any position to act. Why wait?
The U.S. Congress can defeat Castro remnants by acknowledging that the landscape has changed and voting to open
up Cuba to the proven blessings of capitalism.
PS. No one has seen Raul since the announcement.
August 4, 2006
