Ray Nagin, an improbable victor in the New Orleans mayoralty race, began his inauguration
day with a parade through the French Quarter in a horse-drawn carriage surrounded by brass bands and costumed Mardi-Gras
dancers. His inaugural message, delivered June 1st, was far from frivolous, however.
To the half of the city's residents that remain, he sent a somber message. "Get off your duffs," he said,
"Control your own destiny."
Though it may take some time to hear him, Nagin's message is that the citizens have to rely on themselves and not
local, state and federal government. There is simply no national consensus that taxpayer dollars are best spent
restoring neighborhoods that are below sea level now and sinking fast.
Three reports published in the past three weeks tell the story of the depth of the dilemma. The $19.7 million dollar
report of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at 6,000 pages stretched over 9 volumes is the most comprehensive. It
showed no evidence of government or contractor negligence or malfeasance. Instead, the Corp shouldered the blame
for incompetent design and construction.
Katrina damaged 169 miles of the 350-mile hurricane control system. The report concluded that 40 plus years of
effort failed to produce any system at all. Thanks to decades of decisions by the Corps of Engineers, the environmental
activists who sued to stop proposals and often corrupt state, regional or local levee and water boards, the result
was a "disjointed system of levees, inconsistent in quality, materials and design that left gaps that were
exploited by the storm. The levees collapsed from underneath rather that overtopping. In some areas, wrong data
about subsidence (the rate at which the ground sinks) caused some levee sections to be as much as two feet lower
than others. The breaches from underneath caused some two-thirds of the flooding.
A second report issued about a month ago was written by outside experts from the University of California. It called
for the creation of an oversight agency on the grounds that the Engineer Corps was "dysfunctional and unreliable."
It stated these conclusions:
- Earthen levees were built with highly erodible sand and other lightweight local materials (dredge spoils),
not the more cohesive clay which would have had to be imported by truck.
- Some floodwalls were not designed to keep water from seeping underneath and undermined the foundation of the
levees.
- The levees that remained intact were designed and built the same way as the ones that failed.
- Some levees were left unfinished for lack of funds and/or constant squabbles between local supervisory boards.
A third study, headed by the University of Miami geologist Timothy Dixon studied satellite photos over the three
years from 2002-2005. Their report in the magazine Nature
dealt with the subsidence issue.
They concluded that at some points the levee had sunk as much as three feet since their construction. The common
trait of the failed areas was that 100 years ago, these locations were wetlands which had then been drained and
settled. As time passed, the soil underneath the new construction was subject to compaction. Natural settling also
played a role.
The study matches another done at LSU in 2005 which estimated that under local conditions, the soil would sink
5-8 feet per century - over one inch per year. The subsidence data actually used in designing the levees showed
subsidence at a rate one-fifth of the satellite data. To date, the Corps has not taken the new subsidence data
into account in creating their rebuilding plans.
As June 1st arrived, the Engineer Corps had completed better than 95 percent of its scheduled repairs and improvements.
In the past nine months, $800 million has been spent. Over the next four years, an additional $3.7 billion has
been allocated and an additional $3.9 billion has been requested by the Bush administration.
In 2005, there were a record 28 named storms and four major hurricanes made landfall. The forecast for 2006 is
for 17 named storms and one or two to make landfall.
In New Orleans jobs are available but housing is very tight. Many who fled last year are not coming back until
they see if New Orleans can handle the next storm. If it can't, they don't expect to come back at all.
Ray Nagin won the Mayor's runoff race with 52.3 percent of the vote (59,460 votes). A janitor's son from a working-class
neighborhood, Nagin is a former cable television executive who had been widely regarded as speaking for the local
business class. He has a well-earned reputation for always wanting to dress neat and tidy before he goes out in
public and puts his foot in his mouth.
Local political scientists credit the Nagin victory to fear. The African-American community was afraid that the
white elites had plans to use eminent domain to prevent the poor from returning and then create an affluent white
oasis on the flooded lands of the poor. In the end, they voted for the black even though they didn't care about
him. (His first race netted Nagin 40 % of the black vote and 84% of the white) On the other hand, there were enough
whites who did not want to associate themselves with the state-wide Landrieu political machine that they also voted
for Nagin. Some political scientists feel that the endorsement of Republican Rob Couhig was the edge.
If blacks expect someone to pay for a complete restoration of their pre-Katrina life, they face the problems summarized
by Lance Hill of Tulane:
- There is no organized way for poor people to return to the neighborhoods they know.
- The public school system is closed.
- Poor renters have been evicted.
- Damaged homes do not having occupancy permits.
- Building permits are being delayed and insurance is hard to get and expensive.
- FEMA trailers are being kept out of affluent neighborhoods.
- Black workers are being shoved aside by itinerant Latinos.
The community already suspects that the Mayor is in over his head. He has fostered warmer relations with the
Republicans than they would like. The question will be can the Mayor keep bringing in the outside funds?
Inauguration day began with parades and prayers. For Ray Nagin, the prayers are yet to be answered.
06/02/06
