If you read the small print in the current polls, Washington is indeed a swamp. The American
adult in general dislikes the Republican President George W. Bush but dislikes his last two Democrat opponents
just as much or even more.
The Republican Party on Capitol Hill is greatly resented and regarded as out-of-touch and incompetent. So are their
Democrat counterparts. Neither party can be trusted on national security, polls indicate, since military weakness
and failure to control borders are regarded as equally unsound.
There is only one person that the generic adult likes - his or her own Member of Congress.
One cannot predict politics over several months and it is foolish to try. However, barring a great catastrophe,
it is likely that the power of incumbency coupled with very precisely drawn gerrymandered districts by both parties
will result in Democrat gains but not final net counts sufficient to gain control of anything. The Democrats' whole
campaign is likely to produce half-a-loaf. Incumbents prevail 95 percent of the time. A few individual races will
prove to be contrary to the odds.
In the Senate, 41 votes rule. Therefore even if the Democrats won, the Republicans could stop proposals by sustaining
a filibuster, just as the Democrats do now. Losing the House would result in endless subpoenas because blocked
from passing any legislation that had to clear a Republican Senate and gain a Republican presidential signature,
the Democrats would concentrate on winning the Presidency in 2008.
A key question for the fall is that once folks return from summer vacation, will they be influenced by the massive
distortions of the MSM? Will the fall election be about truth or illusion?
A primary example of the distortions caused by the main stream media is the current view about the status of Iraq.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor of Iran's largest daily newspaper. This week he published an analysis entitled
"The Real Iraq." A condensation of his views will help in understanding how separated the typical American
views are from the reality of Iraq. Many of the newsmen, pundits and commentators, Taheri says, are so contaminated
by the bitterness of American politics that they paint for the interested citizen a grossly distorted image of
Iraq.
Taheri points to unfakable reality.
Refugees. From 1959 to 1988,
when things in Iraq were desperate, long lines of refugees formed at the Turkish and Iranian borders. In a Saddam
purge of 1973, some 1.2 million Iraqis permanently left their homes in just six weeks. By the end of 2005, the
number of returnees from neighboring states exceeded 1.2 million.
Religious Pilgrims. With the
Shiite shrines at Karbala and Najaf now freely open, over 3,000 Iraqi clerics have returned to staff the seminaries.
Pupils now number over 15,000 and they come from 40 countries. Pilgrims were non-existent in 2003. In 2005, they
numbered 12 million, more than those who go to Mecca or Medina.
In addition, the seminary at Najaf offers an alternative philosophy to that taught in Iran at Qom. That Iranian
holy city teaches a highly politicized Islam and it is controlled by Iranian secret police.
The Value of the Dinar. Under
Saddam, the Iraqi currency was in free fall and no longer traded on currency markets. The new Dinar was introduced
in 2004 and has risen about 18 percent in value since. It is readily accepted as a safe and solid medium of exchange.
Small Business. The Iraqis
are quite capable entrepreneurs. Iraq's private sector boom has been based on the success of small business. According
to IMF data, the Iraqi economy has done better than its neighbors. The GDP has doubled since 2003 to $90 billion.
The inflation rate has fallen from about 70 percent in 2002 to 25 percent today. Unemployment has fallen from 60
to 30 percent.
Agriculture. Iraq is a land
blessed with fertile soil and abundant water. It is the supposed location of the Garden of Eden. Under the oil-for-fraud
Saddam era, Iraq was totally dependent on UN-distributed rations. With small land holders freed from Baathist collective
farming regulations, Iraq now exports foodstuffs to its neighbors.
Communications. Iraqi society
loves to talk. Now they are able to do so. A vast network of independent media has emerged. That includes over
100 independent newspapers and two dozen radio and television stations. Internet blogs are the rage. The
Environment of freedom of expression is the greatest in the Arab World.
Civil Society. In addition
to a growing number of independent professional associations, Iraq has organized some 60 political parties and
the first free Arab trade unions. More than 400 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) represent diverse segments
of the populace.
What the results show is that after a series of municipal elections and two general elections, Iraq does have a
sense of national identity that even Al Quada couldn't destroy. Operation Iraqi freedom was not an attempt to impose
democracy by force. Rather, it was, Taheri concludes, an effort to use force to remove impediments to democratization
by deposing a tyrant.
By fall, we shall see if our voters can penetrate the fog of the propaganda media or whether the MSM will convince
them of a disaster right at the point of measurable victory for the Iraqi people.
05/26/06
