In the past few days, several major commentators on the war in Iraq have issued
their updated views on the current situation. While they differ in outlook, they are quite similar in one conclusion.
George Friedman of Geopolitical Intelligence Report states: "if there is an endgame to the American presence
in Iraq, it is now."
"If no agreement can be reached now," he asks, "when would an agreement be reached in
the future?"
General Barry McCaffery, (USA ret.) has been a consistent critic of the war for a substantial period of time. He
has just published a summary report of his April visit to the region. The highlights are worth reading.
- U.S. Military Forces in Iraq are superb. Our Army-Marine ground combat units with supporting Air and
Naval Power are characterized by quality military leadership, solid discipline, high morale, and enormous individual
and unit courage. Unit effectiveness is as good as we can get. This is the most competent and battle-wise force
in our nation's history.
- U.S. State Department has an institutional inability to live and work with their Iraqi counterparts
for extended periods of time. While the CIA and the Armed Forces are at war, the U.S. Inter-Agency Support Group
for our strategy in Iraq is not. With a handful of dedicated exceptions, McCaffery reports, the Foreign Service
Officers are large in number, constantly changing, marginally qualified, inadequately experienced and often in-country
only for short tours of 3-6 months. They have no ability to transfer institutional knowledge. Of course, few speak
the language.
U.S. Media is putting their second team in Iraq. Reporters cannot travel independently from our military
forces without risking abduction or death. In some cases, the press has degraded to reporting based on secondary
sources, press briefings which they do not believe, and alarmist video on the aftermath of suicide bombings obtained
from Iraqi employees of unknown reliability.
- The Iraqi Army is real, growing and willing to fight, The battalion level formations are in many cases
excellent -most are adequate. The recruiting now has gotten significant participation by all sectarian groups,
including the Sunni. They are simply a brilliant success story. The same cannot be said for the Iraqi Police. While
some units are good, many units are unreliable or incompetent.
- The Iraqi Government, in McCaffery's view, is likely to succeed in creating a federal government. There
is a total lack of trust among the families, the tribes and the sectarian factions created by 35 years of despotism
and isolation brought on by Saddam's regime. The Iraq's begin as a traumatized society with a malignant political
culture. It is understandable that their leaders work slowly. Any random event could result in a three-way civil
war.
- Al Qaeda has been defeated as a strategic and operational threat to the creation of a central Iraqi
government. The foreigners are dispersing and the locals are accommodating the political realities. Strategy
Page summarizes the al Queda situation as defeated in Iraq and without safe havens. This is due to three mistakes.
Just like all generals, they fought the last information war (Somalia, 1993); they underestimated American leadership
(thinking Clinton and Bush would act the same); and their indiscriminate violence alienated the Iraqi people who
assumed that they would be treated as fellow Muslims.
In his conclusions, McCaffery states: "There is no reason why the United States cannot achieve our objectives
in Iraq. Our aim must be to create a viable federal state under the rule of law which does not enslave its own
people, threaten its neighbors or produce weapons of mass destruction."
George Friedman suggests two key endgame issues.
- Status of our forces in Iraq. The United States will not permit its forces to remain as targets for
guerillas. There will be a substantial draw down this year. Timing is the only issue to negotiate.
Oil. How the revenues and resources are divided among the three key ethnic communities is key. This argues
for America to keep its military in place even though it's an election year. However, oil can be expressed in terms
of money and therefore, even in the Middle East, compromise is possible.
The threat to endgame negotiations is that there are so many parties and the parties themselves are divided.
Here at home, the more the out party obstructs, the less the chance for stability and long-term solutions in Iraq
and the world. It is imperative that the parties to the negotiations are correct in their perceptions of each other.
05/05/06
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