A demonstrator in Los Angeles
carries a sign that illustrates
the complexity of the current
immigration issue.
|
This week the Senate is setting new records for befuddlement. Their immigration debates
resemble nothing as much as the old bumper car ride at the county fair. On Thursday the combined leadership of
the Senate announced a general compromise they can vote on by Friday before they go on vacation for two weeks.
Whatever they pass will have to go to conference with the House.
Update. On Friday the attempt to rush through the 525-page compromise bill failed 60-38. The Frist alternative
proposal also failed by a vote of 36-62. The Senate will now go into a two-week recess.
Partly this muddle is because the politicians are treating illegal aliens as constituents and ignoring the voters
who elected them. Largely it is because what they are debating is not an immigration issue. It is an assimilation
issue.
A significant portion, though not all, of the Mexican illegal alien population does not want to assimilate into
the life and society of the United States. They are here solely for the cash - jobs and/or welfare.
Their vision is of a Jobs Enclave. They want free and unfettered access to both the United States and their country
of origin. They want full participation in government benefits. The want dual citizenship so they can vote in both
nations. They want to speak their native language; live daily lives surrounded by their relatives and home culture
and expand their enclave's borders so that the enclaves themselves become significant political communities. They
are not immigrants creating wealth over generations in their new nation. They are supported by that portion of
the elite who consider themselves transnationalists and regard a borderless society beyond nationhood as the wave
of the future.
In fact, Mexican workers remit some $20 billion annually to their families in Mexico -making them the second biggest
factor in the Mexican economy after oil and energy. An interruption of the remittance flow would be an economic
disaster for Mexico and a decided boost for a Chavez/Castro style presidency in Mexico's July election.
Since the Specter committee held one day of hearings, we know for a fact that the issues have not been thoroughly
considered. The Thursday compromise reflects some further work but probably not enough. Further understanding is
needed on these issues.
Mexico is a failed state. The World Bank says that
China and India have soared past Mexico in the past 15 years. In blunt terms, Mexico's economy is going nowhere.
Their South American Leftist governance features a rich oil and gas sector run by the government with no encouragement
for privatization. Consequently, the sector does not produce any net new jobs. Taxes are high, including the burden
for all of a VAT. Small businesses cannot get credit. Therefore, says economist Larry Kudlow, in an age where emerging
economies are growing 8-10 percent a year, Mexico grows at less than 2 percent and per-capita growth is less than
1 percent. Mexico's prevailing policy is to send us your retired rich and we will send you our working poor. Of
course people want to leave. A successful economic system is right on their border, literally within walking distance.
The individual can earn 20 times more here. Legally,
if possible; illegally, if necessary, the unskilled or uneducated but ambitious worker (H-2B visa) can earn $3-6
per day at home and $60-90 a day in the United States. Hispanics have proven to be great entrepreneurs, small-business
owners and job creators. Their own socialist economic system doesn't allow their creativity to flourish. Regardless
of the circumstance, there is virtually no incentive to stay home. It has been estimated that as much as 40 percent
of the Mexican workforce wants out.
The U.S. has room for new legal workers. Since
the Reagan years of the early 80's the economy has created almost 44 million new jobs with virtually no interruption.
. In order for the needs of new workers in the United States to balance out with the demand from Mexico, it would
take an increase to 400,000 annual legal visas to Mexican citizens from the current 175,000.
Hispanics tend to open new businesses that create new jobs at a rate three times faster than the national average.
These skilled wealth builders are found among the participants in the H-1B visa program which has a very low annual
limit of 65,000 in total.
The Hagel-Martinez compromise creates three tiers of paths to forgiveness. The paths to redemption will require
these steps: admission that a law had been broken; punishment has been set (fine and back taxes) and administered;
and, demonstration of contrition has taken place through good behavior over an extended period of time.
The five million illegal aliens who have been in the United States more than five years would immediately be given
guest worker status without requiring them to move. They would begin an 11-year process towards citizenship.
The four million illegal aliens who have been here more than two years but less than five would have to declare
themselves at one of 16 ports of entry to receive a temporary visa before immediately returning to their U.S. residence.
The three million illegal aliens who have been here less than two years would be required to leave immediately.
If they tried to return and were caught their first offense would be a misdemeanor but their second offense would
be a felony and thus disqualify them from citizenship.
By deadline for this column, no public statement has been made on who would determine how long someone had been
here. (Having arrived illegally, what credible record exists?) No mention has been made of what proof would be
accepted nor what steps would be taken to insure that the proof could not be counterfeited.
If passed, the proposals will go to conference where they will likely become road kill to the ambitions of politicians
who must choose between an immediate appeal to today's voters or a long-range appeal to possible voters yet to
come.
If the nation is fortunate, nothing will come of their politician's efforts. These major elements will either make
up a final bill or cancel each other out and leave the status quo as a campaign issue this fall:
- A wall or fence in the most difficult third of the southern border, some 600-700 miles, plus stepped up technology
and manpower patrolling the rest. This is a $2 billion investment aimed at coyotes, narco-terrorists and border
politics.
- A mandatory system for employers to identify new workers with real penalties for violators. Since large segments
of illegal workers are hired by individuals and small businesses, local jurisdictions often refuse to enforce these
un-funded federal mandates,
- There would be a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the United States. The magnitude of
the problem is estimated at 5.4 million men, 3.9 million women and 1.8 million children.
- Will a more restrictive interpretation be put in place on the citizenship of illegal immigrant's children born
in the United States?
- Will the unskilled work visa quotas be expanded to perhaps 400,000 or whatever is determined to fit the actual
need? Will a work skills requirement be added to the visa priority selection list? There is none at the moment.
- Will the skilled worker visa program low annual limits be adjusted upwards?
- If visa quotas are expanded, will a guest worker program even be needed?
Throughout our history, immigrants have taken "jobs Americans don't want." That's the American opportunity.
Yes, you may need to start with a miserable job that no one else wants but you don't have to stay there and the
future generations of your family won't have to either.
We are still the land of opportunity for the individual.
04/07/06
