The Timeshare Beat: Potomac Walk by Tom Huheey; Katrina Fantasies

Map Courtesy of NOAA

Falsehoods fly. Truth walks. We know that from experience. After the September frenzy of the largely hapless main stream media on the August 29, 2005 hurricane called Katrina, it is important that honest and competent reporting is still published somewhere. The cover story of the March issue of Popular Mechanics - www.PopularMechanics.com - gives the results of their four-month, multi-staff investigation of Katrina including some recommended ways to improve responses.

In a highly condensed form, here are the highlights of their report. PM examines seven myths caused by the first impressions conveyed by the media that have turned out to be seriously mistaken.

Myth One. Americans abandoned other Americans (of perhaps different races) and they did it on American soil.

Reality. The response to Hurricane Katrina was by far the largest - and fastest - rescue effort in U.S. history, with nearly 100,000 emergency personnel on the scene within three days of the storm's landfall.

Dozens of National Guard and Coast Guard helicopters flew rescue operations within two hours of the time when Katrina hit the coast. In one week, 50,000 National Guard troops had saved 17,000 local residents. Some 4,000 Coast Guard personnel saved an additional 33,000. By September 8th, local, state and national non-military first responders had rescued 20,000 in waterborne operations. Computer simulations of a Katrina-strength hurricane had a worse case scenario of a 60,000 death toll in Louisiana. The actual number in the state was 1077. FEMA is not a first responder. That is the responsibility assigned to state and local officials. For the first 72-96 hours.

Myth Two. Hurricane Katrina was an once-in-a-lifetime anomaly.

Reality. By the time it made landfall, Katrina was a mid-level category three hurricane. Its peak sustained wind at landfall (55 miles south of New Orleans) was 125 mph. By the time it got to the city, Katrina's wind measurements barely reached hurricane strength.
1969's Hurricane Camille was measured at 200 mph. Andrew (Florida in 1992) was 142 mph at its peak. The following storms Wilma and Rita were only slightly less powerful than Katrina.

The Atlantic is in a cycle that could last 40 years. During that cycle, the United States can expect to be hit by dozens of storms Katrina's size.

Myth Three. The flood wall failures were due to human error and even malfeasance by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Reality. Had the levees held, there would have been relatively little damage to New Orleans. Most of the floodwall failure occurred when water running 25 feet deep overtopped the barriers. Three floodwalls were breached - one in the 17th Street Canal and two on the London Avenue Canal. In December, PM staffers witnessed engineers pull four key sections and measure them. They were all within design specifications.

The Corps is restoring levees at a cost of more than $ 1 billion and they expect to be done by June 1, the beginning of the 2006 hurricane season. The repaired areas will have foundations driven more than 50 feet deep, three times the depth of the existing foundations.

Myth Four. There was extensive uncontrolled violence on the streets and in the Superdome.

Reality. The lurid tales about violent crime were almost universally false. Looting and property crimes were widespread only on the 29th of August. Local police confirm that the majority of that looting was for food and water.

When the Superdome was finally cleared, six bodies were found. (The media had estimated 200.) Four people had died of natural causes, one was a suicide and one died from a drug overdose. At the Convention Center, four bodies were recovered, three had died of natural causes and one had been stabbed to death.

Myth Five. The failure to evacuate was the "tipping point" of all the other problems.

Reality. When Mayor Nagin issued his voluntary evacuation plan, a contraflow traffic plan turned inbound traffic lanes into outbound lanes. Out of a metro population of 1.5 million, some 1.2 million left. Estimates were that it would take 72 hours to evacuate that many people. The actual event took 38 hours.

Later investigations established that many had transportation but stayed by choice. The two tragic exceptions were hospital and nursing home patients. By any reasonable standard, the evacuation was very successful.

Myth Six. We will rebuild the Gulf Coast bigger and better than ever.

Reality. According to PM, Congress needs to reform the national flood insurance program before rebuilding programs begin. The current National Flood Insurance Program rewards people who live in coastal areas subject to floods and offers the chance to profit handsomely by making multiple claims over a period of time.

The five Gulf Coast states have filed less than two percent of the claims over the last decade but those claims account for 40 percent of the losses, some $5.6 billion.
The claims for Katrina, Rita and Wilma exceed $22 billion. That's more than the total paid in premiums over the 38-year history of the FEMA insurance program. General taxpayers lack much enthusiasm for subsidizing "bigger and better" coastal vacation homes. A negotiated partial "retreat from the beach" may need to precede rebuilding.
As much as local politicians want to restore their lock on minority voters, the general taxpaying public is probably not all that interested in funding and then insuring homes build below sea level.

Myth Seven. When the major energy network goes down, the U.S. economy will collapse.

Reality. The sky is falling press accounts predicted $5.00 a gallon gasoline, recession, massive layoffs and a ruined Christmas shopping season. None of these predictions were accurate. While the media looked elsewhere, Rita and Wilma did more damage to the oil industry than Katrina. Of the Gulf's 4,000 drilling rigs, only 86 were damaged or destroyed. Most of them were old, fixed platforms with unproductive wells. Recovery came much more quickly that projected. By the first of January just three refineries were still offline and production was down just eight percent. A mild January tempered demand and the lifeline was restored quickly.

Three changes could be made that would help quickly. (1) Relax restrictions on refinery construction and expand possible locations. (2) Expand port facilities for natural gas. (3) Relax the current ban on coastal drilling for offshore natural gas.

Finally, PM says, get serious about re-engineering the Mississippi.

The Mississippi River is the third largest drainage basin in the world. Government began building levees in the later 1800's. The control structures, dams and levees have tamed the river but the price has been high. Sediment is either trapped upstream - too soon - or propelled too far - beyond the continental shelf. The result was that new coastal wetlands did not form and existing ones diminished.

Congress has to get serious about one question - How do we re-engineer the lower Mississippi to restore coastal wetlands while maintaining the flood controls and navigation structures than led to their destruction? Katrina and the prospect of regular Katrinas in the future obliterate denial as a strategy.

03/10/06