The Timeshare Beat: Potomac Walk by Tom Huheey; Fizzled Frenzy

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically vital bit of ocean between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf in the southwest. Iran lies to the north and UAE and the enclave of Oman to the south. At its narrowest, the strait is just 21 miles wide with two one-mile-wide shipping channels separated by two miles of buffer zone. Some 25 percent of the world's oil supply passes through the strait.

The MSM thought it learned something new from their original Katrina coverage six months ago. If they swarmed together when they pummeled President Bush they could produce a measurable negative effect even if their reports weren't true. This week that strategy was tested and largely fizzled as they careened from frenzy to frenzy.

The Cheney incident dropped from view, the Patriot Act passed through the Senate by a wide margin, the DP World terminal agreement reaction seemed to be dwindling, a Katrina swarm re-visit blew up in one single day thanks to lies in the reporting and George Bush did what may turn out to be the most significant accomplishment of his second term.

Bush welcomed India to the Anglosphere, the stable and prosperous collection of nations whose cultures and customs derive from English Common Law. On Thursday, President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced a nuclear technology and fuel sharing agreement designed to boost electricity supplies to a nation that is building its fortune largely on electronic publishing, call-centers and IT production services.

This agreement will facilitate the growth of the English language and its proven legal and business customs beyond the Indian educated elites. It ends India's pariah status in the nuclear club. In a decade or so, there will be more home-users of English than in the US, since India has three times the population. In another decade after that, there will be more home-users of English than in the rest of the Anglosphere combined. The counterweight to Chinese ambitions will be very strong, successful and well-connected.

Casting aside the fear-mongering on both sides, some serious answers to real issues will develop in the next few weeks on the DP World debate.

Effective Inspections

If your leading objective is protection against a container carrying a nuke, complaining about a five percent inspection rate at the port of delivery is a diversion from the issue. By the time a nuke is on a ship entering, say, Long Beach, it is too late. The key is to stop the container at the port where it is to be loaded.

Under our current operating system, more than 80 percent of cargo headed for the US undergoes the following procedures .at the foreign port of departure (1) No less than 24-hours before loading there is a manifest review by US local customs personnel (2) Any high risk cargoes are identified (3) One hundred percent of high risk containers are screened with high-speed, high tech devices. (4) Containers are sealed with traceable locks that broadcast any attempt to open or replace them. Container ships coming from Asia, for example, make an average of 17 stops before arriving at a West Coast port. Locks that can be traced by satellite assure against tampering at intermediate stops.

Ownership Risk

Certainly all the infiltration schemes dreamed up by Jack Bauer addicts can happen. They can happen regardless of who owns the stevedoring contract. The difference in degree of risk between, say, a UAE-owned firm and a Chinese-owned firm is probably not measurable.. If anything, the Chinese government-owned firm presents a higher risk since China has announced aggressive ambitions and far greater resources. Were the current sale of P&O stocks not to go through, the alternatives may be even worse.. P&O does not plan to just continue but to sell out. The only other bidder hails from Singapore which has its own Islamic radical problem coming from neighboring Indonesia and whose financial partner often is China. Requests to limit ownership to American companies fail to account for two things: (1) no American company wants the deal and (2) the only company with the skills and resources to make the deal work is Halliburton.

The Solution

The betting at the moment is that the deal will go through with perhaps an American subsidiary company created to operate the 22 or so US port leases. Faced with declining public support for President Bush and an overwhelming public disapproval of the port deal, Republican presidential hopefuls have not hesitated to break ranks with the White House. Bush political opponents, attempting to create national security credentials for themselves, have stepped all over one of the best and most successful Middle East intelligence operations around. As usual, opponents suggest no alternatives except that things would be much, much better if they were in charge.

On the other hand, the recent Bush public relations effort across the board has been perhaps the most wretched performance in memory. Its ineptitude endangers policy as well as Republican political prospects over the next two elections.

As Washington reels from frenzy to frenzy, there is the serious question of whether or not a lame duck can win a war. The vexing question for the opposition is - the public doesn't believe a lame chicken could do any better.

03/03/06