Much of the world either was or professed to be shocked by the Palestinian elections held
this week. Hamas, the more overt terror group, defeated Fatah, the more circumspect terror group. In the 132-seat
Parliament, Hamas gained 76 seats to Fatah's 43 seats. With 1.3 million eligible voters, some 78 percent of Palestinians
went to the polls. An 85-member observer force from around the world declared the results mostly free and fair.
Therefore, it is safe to assume that the Palestinian people had their say
And they picked war.
Hamas believes in the extermination of the Jews as a religious duty, not a political tactic. It pledges itself
to driving all others from "Palestinian lands." It pursues incendiary, hate-driven indoctrination of
their population from birth. On the other hand, they have no independent sources of wealth generation. Their agenda
has no realistic prospect of being carried out. Their opponents have the resources to defeat them handily.
The Hamas movement hires out to its donors in large part to be their proxy avenger. In the Arab world, revenge
is highly prized. How clever, they think, to make money off the West by posing as their ally while shipping money
to a group that can inflict pain on a regular basis.
Very few within the organization were expecting an outright election victory for Hamas.. They were thinking of
being the voice whispering in the ear of power. They needed a front to accept donations. Terror groups hang in
the shadows. Guerillas run when necessary and attack when unobserved. They hide among ordinary citizens to deter
military responses or insure collateral damage if they are attacked.
Now, the Palestinian people have swung the spotlight directly on the Hamas leadership. The world will now get to
see what happens when you make a terrorist stand still. Victory puts Hamas in an impossible position. By winning,
they must actually govern.
A rocket fired on Israel will have to have been launched from a nation with a government. That government has an
address. The bomb is an act of war, not an act of defiance from out-of-control discontents. A path full of violence
switches off international aid. There is no support for the annihilation of Israel over the two-state proposals.
Victory means that Hamas owns the problems of Palestine. None of them can be solved without lots and lots of money.
Arafat and his friends stole literally billions of dollars intended for the people over decades. The Arab nations
have virtually never given funds for development or even relief aid.
Fatah muted its external terror in order to get nearly one billion a year from Europe, the U.S., Israel, the U.N.
and scattered other sources. Hamas has been operating on $60-70 million gathered from a less savory collection
of donors - Saddam when he could, Iran, wealthy donors in the Arab world and phony "charities" in the
West. The donors who funded Arafat and Fatah did so because they had political cover. Sadly, they would do so again
if Fatah played the game.
Hamas needs to find a billion dollars each and every year. The West won't fund overt terror and Hamas leaders aren't
the type to plead. That leaves them two options:
- (1) Fail to get the money. Since there is no workable economy, sink into a dictatorship to avoid a recall
election.
(2) Get the money from bad guys. Saudis pushing Wahabism and al-Queda itself are willing to pay for services
rendered. With their short-term help comes the threat of a long-term takeover. If anyone thinks that AQ training
or supply camps next door to Israel will be exempt from attack, they should apply for a job with the Carter Institute.
The donor parties will, perhaps, search for a way out. Europe has already published the absurd idea that they
won't want to be too hard on Palestine for fear of creating terrorists. Michael Rubin described their strategy
as "Speak softly and carry a big carrot."
Hamas has already opened one door by saying they would discuss a long-term (100 year) truce. The Muslim concept
of "Hudna" (tactical truce) needs to be understood. The truce is only offered to gain respite, to re-supply
or to gather additional forces. It is well within Islamic doctrine to then break the truce without remorse.
European material and public support is based on a quid pro quo with the Arab League which provides oil and favorable
trade in exchange for donations and public support. It will be a policy they do not wish to abandon. They will
look for ways to circumvent public attention. They will also press Hamas to modify its stance. The EU way will
be to not ask Hamas to retract its policies but ask them to not do anything or the moment. The E.U delegates are
not likely to be very successful because the secular West thinks that policy decisions can and should be modified
to fit changing circumstances. Leaders of Hamas believe their positions are directed by their religion and are
immutable.
Whatever else may happen, elections often bring clarity. The Palestinians do not want peace. In fact, they don't
value peace at all. They value all-out war. Largely, this is because they have been shielded from the worse consequences
of war. When things got tough, they could always count on America to pressure Israel to stop.
After Wednesday's election, night isn't day. The veil is removed. Consequences are real.
In case you have forgotten how to spell it, the name is Benjamin Netanyahu.
