Our Future
“Predictions of the future are never anything but projections
of present automatic processes and procedures, that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do
not act and if nothing unexpected happens.”
-
Hannah Arendt -
Michel de Nostradamus is said to have predicted the future. Four hundred & fifty years ago he published
the first of ten books entitled Centuries with each volume containing one hundred predictions. The most
well known of these predictions concerned three powerful and tyrannical leaders that he calls anti-Christs. It
is thought that the first of these was Napoleon Bonaparte and the second Adolf Hitler. Those who
believe that Nostradamus could indeed predict the future are currently looking to identify the third of
these anti-Christs and the next World War he indicated would begin in late 1999.
In more modern times such as today there are professions that are all about predicting the future such as Meteorologists
and Economists. There are also Astrologers, Numerologists, Psychics, Prophets, Stock Brokers and Spin Doctors.
To offer some protection from some that would predict the future many are required to provide disclaimers such
as:
Statements about future results and plans made in this release and the statements attached hereto constitute
forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. The Company cautions
that these statements are not guarantees of future performance, and involve risks and uncertainties and other factors
that may cause results to differ materially from those anticipated at the time such statements are made. Future
results, performance and achievements may be affected by general economic conditions including a global economic
downturn, the impact of war and terrorist activity, business and financing conditions, foreign exchange fluctuations,
governmental and regulatory actions, the cyclicality of the vacation ownership industry, relationships with key
employees, domestic and international political and geopolitical conditions, competition, downturns in leisure
travel patterns, risk associated with the level and structure of our indebtedness, risk associated with potential
acquisitions and dispositions, and other circumstances and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are presented
in detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent Transition Report
on Form 10-K. Although we believe the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon
reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained or that results will not
materially differ.
I also have been guilty of predicting the future. Just last week in With Regard to Bad News I indicated
that, unless we in the Timeshare / Vacation Ownership industry change some of our ways, we would ‘Kill the Goose
that laid the Golden Egg’. If I am going to continue to predict the future in this column I think I should begin
to follow some of the rules for predicting the future provided by MacArthur Fellowship award winning author
Octavia E. Butler in a May 2000 article which appeared in Essence magazine. In that article Ms.
Butler indicated that the very act of trying to look ahead to discern possibilities and offer warnings is in
itself an act of hope. I think that my prediction (or warning) about the Goose was indeed made out of desperation
and HOPE.
So what are some of those rules I will use in future predictions?
• Learn From the Past
Ms. Butler indicated; “Use our
past and present behaviors as guides to the kind of world we seem to be creating. The past, for example, is filled
with repeating cycles of strength and weakness, wisdom and stupidity, empire and ashes. To study history is to
study humanity. And to try to foretell the future without studying history is like trying to learn to read without
bothering to learn the alphabet.”
• Respect the Law of Consequences
Ms. Butler indicated; “I don't
believe we can do anything at all without side effects-- also known as unintended consequences. Those consequences
may be beneficial or harmful. They may be too slight to matter or they may be worth the risk because the potential
benefits are great, but the consequences are always there.”
• Be Aware of Your Perspective
Ms. Butler indicated; “Wishful
thinking is no more help in predicting the future than fear, superstition or depression. Where we stand determines
what we're able to see.”
• Count On the Surprises
Ms. Butler indicated; “No
matter how hard we try to foresee the future, there are always these surprises. The only safe prediction is that
there always will be.”
Ms. Butler concluded by indicating: “Why try to predict the future at all if it's so difficult,
so nearly impossible? Because making predictions is one way to give warning when we see ourselves drifting in dangerous
directions. Because prediction is a useful way of pointing out safer, wiser courses. Because, most of all, our
tomorrow is the child of our today. Through thought and deed, we exert a great deal of influence over this child,
even though we can't control it absolutely. Best to think about it, though. Best to try to shape it into something
good. Best to do that for any child.”
FINAL THOUGHT
Could it be that our industry at almost 40 is still a child? Are we at almost 40 beyond paying attention to
the warnings that we are drifting in a dangerous direction?
Will our past continue to haunt us? Will it take federal and state intervention as in current Telemarketing
regulations to get us to address those age-old tricks-of–the-trade marketing and sales techniques supported/condoned
by many developers and evident in every closing room?
Will we ever acknowledge that there will be unintended consequences resulting from our rush to enhance corporate
coffers and shareholder dividends at the expense of existing stakeholders? Those same stakeholders who are currently
responsible for upward of 40% of existing primary sales volume and almost all of the sales that occur in the secondary
market?
Will our shortsighted perspective that the timeshare / vacation ownership industry is only about development,
sales & marketing, consolidation, affiliations, branding, and expansion via new niches continue to push aside
other segments such as customer/ member services, owner associations, resales, and ethics?
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise… My predictions for our future are bleak. I am not hopeful or encouraged by what
I see. Many will respond to that statement with something like: “Your perspective is very limited. Your
primary interest lies with existing individual owners, the effective management of the resorts they own, those
owners collectively as members of their Owners Associations and those associates working to exceed the expectations
of those who are guests at the resorts where they are employed.” They would be correct!
In rebuttal I would point out that in my areas of interest we get graded with each client contact and must perform
to a standard set by others such as RCI and Interval. If all other segments of the industry would
subject themselves to such third party scrutiny my bleak predictions disappear.
JS 2/05
