Press Release: Center for International Policy
July 16, 2002
WASHINGTON, DC -- Airline industry revenues would climb by as much as $415 million annually, and U.S. economic
output would increase by between $1.18 billion and $1.61 billion a year, if current restrictions on travel to Cuba
were lifted, according to a study released by the Center for International Policy (CIP).
"The economic embargo against Cuba is not only a failed policy, but it has also cost the American economy
profits and jobs," said Thomas Cooper, President, Gulfstream International Airlines, and a Board Member of
CIP. "Congress should legalize travel to Cuba, recapture the dignity of our foreign policy, and provide a
real boost to the American economy, and especially the airline and tourism industries."
Legislation will be considered in the U.S. House of Representatives this week to prohibit enforcement of the Cuba
travel ban by the Treasury Department during the upcoming fiscal year.
CIP retained The Brattle Group, an independent economic research and consulting firm, to analyze the impact on
the U.S. economy of lifting current restrictions on travel to Cuba. Brattle's study addressed four questions:
* How many Americans would travel to Cuba absent travel restrictions?
* What would be the resulting net increase in demand for travel on
U.S. airlines (excluding travel diverted from other destinations)?
* How much additional output and employment in the overall economy
would this increase in air travel generate?
* How many people would visit Cuba on U.S.-based cruise ships, and how
much additional economic activity would the increase in cruise
travel generate?
The Brattle Group looked at the incidence of travel to Cuba by Canadian tourists, to predict future travel to
Cuba by American tourists, and examined how often Dominican Americans visit family in the Dominican Republic, as
a basis for estimating increases in travel to Cuba by Cuban Americans.
"The travel rates of comparable groups are the best predictor of how many Americans would travel to Cuba if
there were no restrictions, and those rates are very high," said Dorothy Robyn of The Brattle Group. "Even
under conservative assumptions, U.S. airlines would earn as much as an additional $415 million a year -- a significant
amount at a time when the airline industry is hemorrhaging red ink, laying off workers and asking for federal loan
guarantees."
The ripple effect of increased air and cruise travel would be felt across the entire travel and tourism sector
and the broader economy, as airlines and cruise lines buy additional inputs ranging from travel agent services
to manufactured equipment.
For a copy of the complete study, please visit http://www.ciponline.org .
Founded in 1975, CIP is a non-profit educational and research organization promoting a U.S. foreign policy based
on international cooperation, demilitarization and respect for basic human rights across the globe.
The Brattle Group, a leading international economic consulting firm, provides consulting services and expert testimony
on economic, finance, regulatory, and strategic issues to corporations, law firms, and government agencies world-wide.
Its principals include a recent recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics. It has offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts,
San Francisco, California, Washington, DC, and London.
SOURCE: Center for International Policy